York United vs HFX Wanderers FC
Match events
- 3'A. Almagro (J. Altobelli)
- 10'R. Telfer
- 25'S. Yeates (A. Almagro)
- 45+4'M. Arilla
- 46'A. Reid (I. Johnston)
- 46'T. Skublak (L. Accettola)
- 47'J. Altobelli (L. Accettola)
- 56'Andre Rampersad (R. Telfer)
- 57'K. Sow (J. Bahamboula)
- 58'T. Ciccarelli (Sven Zitman)
- 58'Andre Rampersad (T. Meilleur-Giguère)
- 58'M. Arilla (Sven Zitman)
- 60'O. León
- 63'O. Bassett (Raúl López)
- 63'J. Cordova (Raúl López)
- 63'L. Olguin
- 65'C. Guzman (Raúl López)
- 77'I. Johnston
- 78'L. Olguin (I. A. Hassan)
- 79'Luke Singh (J. Costa)
- 79'J. Altobelli (S. Gonzales)
- 83'A. Almagro (B. Badibanga)
- 87'S. Yeates
- 1.1
- Goals/game
- 1.2
- 1.7
- Conceded/game
- 1.2
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
The analysis suggests a closely contested match, with both teams struggling for form recently. York United has not secured a win in their last five games, while HFX Wanderers have managed just one win but remain unbeaten against York in their last two encounters. Given their performances, a draw appears to be a likely outcome.
- HFX Wanderers unbeaten in last 2 matches against York United
- York United has not won in last 5 matches
- HFX Wanderers have a slightly better form with 1 win in last 5 matches
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors York United
- Tighter defenseHFX Wanderers FC
HFX Wanderers FC are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.2/game conceded - Historical edgeHFX Wanderers FC
HFX Wanderers FC have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins - Poor recent formHFX Wanderers FC
HFX Wanderers FC have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Weak home recordYork United
York United have won 3 of their last 8 home matches.
3/8 home wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 39% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked York United at 39% — final result was York United win, York United 4-3 HFX Wanderers FC.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (69/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- York United have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- HFX Wanderers FC have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
HFX Wanderers FC
York UnitedHFX Wanderers FCYork UnitedHFX Wanderers FCYork UnitedYork UnitedHFX Wanderers FCYork UnitedHFX Wanderers FCHFX Wanderers FCYork UnitedHFX Wanderers FCYork UnitedYork UnitedHFX Wanderers FCOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | York United | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -14 | 18 | WDLL |
| 5 | HFX Wanderers FC | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 20 | LLDL |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
York United
HFX Wanderers FC
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Who is likely to win York United vs HFX Wanderers FC?+
Our AI model favors York United to win, with a 39% probability (Draw 26%, HFX Wanderers FC 35%).
What time does York United vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 8:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).