Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | — | 5 | 8 | 1 |
 Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 5-4
Data suggests that the Arizona Diamondbacks have an edge at home with a 55% win rate and favorable recent performances against the Cincinnati Reds, who have struggled on the road. The last 10 games illustrate the Reds' offensive challenges, averaging just 3.8 runs, which further tilts the likelihood in favor of the Diamondbacks. Based on these factors, a slight home score advantage is anticipated.
- Arizona Diamondbacks have a home win rate of 55% this season.
- Cincinnati Reds have averaged 3.8 runs scored over their last 10 games.
- Arizona has a strong recent performance at home against the Reds, winning 2 of their last 3 home matchups.
- Cincinnati's away win rate this season is only 45%, contributing to a lower expectation in this matchup.
Confidence is high because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Higher league positionArizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks sit 2 places above Cincinnati Reds in the table.
#3 vs #5 - Sharper attackArizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks are averaging 4.8 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
4.8/game - Historical edgeArizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Strong home recordArizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks have won 11 of their last 20 home matches.
11/20 home wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 55% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 55% — final result was Arizona Diamondbacks win, Arizona Diamondbacks 5-3 Cincinnati Reds.
Predicted score was 5-4.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (73/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks have averaged 4.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Cincinnati Reds have averaged 5.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Arizona Diamondbacks are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Cincinnati Reds.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Arizona Diamondbacks | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 3.15▼ | 1.35▲ |
| -2 | 2.83▼ | 1.42▲ |
| -1.5 | 2.42▼ | 1.58▲ |
| -1 | 1.99▼ | 1.82▲ |
| +1 | 1.49▼ | 2.56▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.42▼ | 2.80▲ |
| +2 | 1.32▼ | 3.23▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.27▼ | 3.52▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1.38▲ | 2.92▼ |
| 7.5 | 1.56▲ | 2.37▼ |
| 8 | 1.65▲ | 2.21▼ |
| 8.5 | 1.81▲ | 2.01▼ |
| 9 | 2.01▲ | 1.81▼ |
| 9.5 | 2.19▲ | 1.66▼ |
| 10 | 2.43▲ | 1.53▼ |
| 10.5 | 2.52 | 1.50 |
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
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Philadelphia PhilliesFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds?+
Our AI model favors Arizona Diamondbacks to win, with a 55% probability (Cincinnati Reds 45%).
What time does Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds start?+
First pitch is at Aug 23, 2026, 8:15 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds?+
Arizona Diamondbacks: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 4, 0. Cincinnati Reds: 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 5-3.