Bolívar vs Sao Paulo
Match events
- 23'Robert Arboleda (Iago)
- 51'Iago
- 54'José Sagredo (Damian Batallini)
- 61'Iago (Wendell)
- 63'C. Melgar
- 72'Marcos Antônio (Danielzinho)
- 72'Luciano (Ferreira)
- 76'M. Cauteruccio (B. Miranda)
- 76'P. Rodríguez (Jhon Velásquez)
- 83'Damián Bobadilla (Cauly)
- 84'Lucas Ramon (Aurelio Buta)
- 85'Robson Matheus (Billy Arce)
- 85'E. Saavedra (Ervin Vaca)
- 90+6'Aurelio Buta
Lineups
- 3.4
- Goals/game
- 1.3
- 1.4
- Conceded/game
- 1.8
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 3-1
Data suggests that Bolívar is in formidable form, having won four of their last five matches and boasting a high scoring average of 3.4 goals per game. Conversely, São Paulo has struggled on the road, securing only one win out of three away matches this season and conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game. Overall, the numbers favor Bolívar to secure a victory in this matchup.
- Bolívar won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 3.4 goals scored per game.
- São Paulo's away form has yielded only 1 win in 3 matches this season.
- Bolívar is scoring an impressive 3.4 goals per game in their last 10 matches.
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Bolívar
- Sharper attackBolívar
Bolívar are averaging 3.4 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
3.4/game - Good recent formBolívar
Bolívar have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Tighter defenseBolívar
Bolívar are conceding just 1.4 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.4/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Bolívar at 53% — final result was a draw, Bolívar 1-1 Sao Paulo.
Predicted score was 3-1.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Bolívar have averaged 3.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Sao Paulo have averaged 1.3 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sao Paulo | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +5 | 12 | DDDW |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Bolívar
Sao Paulo
More CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?+
Our AI model favors Bolívar to win, with a 53% probability (Draw 27%, Sao Paulo 20%).
What time does Bolívar vs Sao Paulo kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).