Brighton vs Aston Villa
Match events
- 8'V. Lindelöf
- 9'Pascal Groß
- 10'João Gomes
- 11'Yasin Ayari
- 14'Pascal Groß
- 18'M. De Cuyper (Georginio Rutter)
- 30'Jack Hinshelwood (Diego Gómez)
- 33'John McGinn
- 40'João Gomes
- 64'Yasin Ayari (Costinha)
- 64'Jack Hinshelwood (Charalampos Kostoulas)
- 74'Pau Torres (T. Mings)
- 74'Ross Barkley (Lamare Bogarde)
- 78'Mats Wieffer (Z. Yohanna)
- 78'M. De Cuyper (I. Osman)
- 82'John McGinn (Alysson)
- 82'Ian Maatsen (M. Ruggeri)
- 86'Diego Gómez (Malick Yalcouyé)
- 86'Emiliano Buendia (Alejandro Garnacho)
- 90+5'Matty Cash
Lineups
- 1.7
- Goals/game
- 1.8
- 0.9
- Conceded/game
- 1.3
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
The data suggests a competitive match with Aston Villa showing slightly better recent form, especially in their goal-scoring ability, averaging 1.8 goals per game in their last 10 matches. Brighton's home advantage may contribute to their chances, but their mixed results in recent fixtures could limit their effectiveness against a well-performing Villa side.
- Brighton's last 5 matches show a mix of results with 2 wins and 3 losses
- Aston Villa has scored 8 goals across their last 5 matches, indicating strong attacking form
- Historically, Aston Villa has a slight edge in recent head-to-head encounters, winning 3 of the last 5 matches
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Brighton
- Higher league positionBrighton
Brighton sit 17 places above Aston Villa in the table.
#2 vs #19 - Historical edgeAston Villa
Aston Villa have won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
6/8 H2H wins - Good recent formBrighton
Brighton have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L - Good recent formAston Villa
Aston Villa have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 44% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Brighton at 43.58% — final result was Brighton win, Brighton 4-0 Aston Villa.
Predicted score was 1-2.
This was a high confidence pick (79/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Brighton have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Aston Villa have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Aston Villa
BrightonBrightonAston VillaBrightonAston VillaAston VillaBrightonBrightonAston VillaAston VillaBrightonAston VillaBrightonBrightonAston VillaOdds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 | W |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | L |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
P. Bankes
Based on 19 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Brighton
Aston Villa
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NewcastleFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Brighton vs Aston Villa?+
Our AI model favors Brighton to win, with a 43.58% probability (Draw 27.1%, Aston Villa 29.32%).
What time does Brighton vs Aston Villa kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 1:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).