Chunichi Dragons vs Yakult Swallows
Value found
+17% edgeYakult Swallows win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chunichi Dragons | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 | 5 | 0 |
 Yakult Swallows | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 3-4
The numbers suggest a tight contest between the Chunichi Dragons and the Yakult Swallows. Despite the Dragons' favorable historical performance against the Swallows, their recent struggles have resulted in a low win rate. Conversely, the Swallows have demonstrated strong form, scoring significantly more runs than they allow over their last 10 games, pointing to a slight edge in this matchup.
- Chunichi Dragons have lost 8 of their last 10 games.
- Yakult Swallows have won 7 of their last 10 games.
- Head-to-head history shows Chunichi Dragons winning the last 5 matchups against Yakult Swallows.
Confidence is moderate because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Yakult Swallows
- Tighter defenseYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows are conceding just 3.8 runs per game over their recent matches.
3.8/game conceded - Poor recent formChunichi Dragons
Chunichi Dragons have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Poor recent formYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Sharper attackYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows are averaging 3.4 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
3.4/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 51% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Yakult Swallows at 51% — final result was Chunichi Dragons win, Chunichi Dragons 3-0 Yakult Swallows.
Predicted score was 3-4.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (59/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Chunichi Dragons have averaged 2.6 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yakult Swallows have averaged 3.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Chunichi Dragons are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 meetings with Yakult Swallows.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Chunichi Dragons | Yakult Swallows |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 3.06▲ | 1.34▼ |
| -2 | 2.81▲ | 1.38 |
| -1.5 | 2.30▲ | 1.58▼ |
| -1 | 1.88 | 1.77 |
| -0.5 | 1.62 | 2.17 |
| +0.5 | 1.54 | 2.33 |
| +1 | 1.35▼ | 2.77▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.31▼ | 3.17▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 1.51▲ | 2.42▼ |
| 6 | 1.59▲ | 2.23▼ |
| 6.5 | 1.76▲ | 2.00▼ |
| 7 | 1.95▲ | 1.76▼ |
| 7.5 | 2.22▲ | 1.60▼ |
| 8 | 2.50▲ | 1.47▼ |
| 8.5 | 2.62 | 1.43 |
| 9 | 3.06 | 1.30 |
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 115 | 65 | 50 | +66 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 117 | 63 | 54 | +30 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 116 | 52 | 64 | +5 | 45 | — |
| 4 | Yakult Swallows | 115 | 51 | 64 | -79 | 44 | — |
| 5 | Chunichi Dragons | 119 | 51 | 68 | -6 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 112 | 46 | 66 | -74 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 116 | 72 | 44 | +181 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 119 | 67 | 52 | +37 | 56 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 119 | 65 | 54 | +64 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 118 | 56 | 62 | -71 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 113 | 52 | 61 | -71 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 115 | 45 | 70 | -82 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesOrix BuffaloesFukuoka S. HawksSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Chunichi Dragons vs Yakult Swallows?+
Our AI model favors Yakult Swallows to win, with a 51% probability (Chunichi Dragons 49%).
What time does Chunichi Dragons vs Yakult Swallows start?+
First pitch is at Aug 21, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Chunichi Dragons vs Yakult Swallows?+
Chunichi Dragons: 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Yakult Swallows: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 3-0.