Chunichi Dragons vs Yakult Swallows
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | X | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chunichi Dragons | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
 Yakult Swallows | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 2 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-3
The numbers favor the Chunichi Dragons, who have historically dominated recent matchups against the Yakult Swallows, winning the last three encounters. While the Dragons' offense has struggled, averaging only 2.9 runs over their last ten games, their recent victory against the Swallows might boost their morale. Conversely, the Swallows have performed better statistically, averaging 4.1 runs scored while allowing only 1.7 per game; however, this matchup history could influence their performance.
- Chunichi Dragons have won 3 consecutive games against Yakult Swallows.
- Chunichi Dragons have a home win rate of 45% this season.
- Yakult Swallows have a lower away win rate of 40% this season.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Chunichi Dragons
- Tighter defenseYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows are conceding just 4 runs per game over their recent matches.
4/game conceded - Good recent formChunichi Dragons
Chunichi Dragons have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Poor recent formYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L - Sharper attackYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows are averaging 2.7 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
2.7/game
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Chunichi Dragons at 62.5% — final result was Chunichi Dragons win, Chunichi Dragons 5-4 Yakult Swallows.
Predicted score was 4-3.
This was a high confidence pick (88/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Chunichi Dragons have averaged 3 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yakult Swallows have averaged 2.7 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Chunichi Dragons are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 meetings with Yakult Swallows.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Chunichi Dragons | Yakult Swallows |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 2.90 | 1.36 |
| -2 | 2.53 | 1.46 |
| -1.5 | 2.18 | 1.64 |
| -1 | 1.78 | 1.88 |
| -0.5 | 1.51 | 2.45 |
| +0.5 | 1.46 | 2.58 |
| +1 | 1.29 | 3.08 |
| +1.5 | 1.27 | 3.43 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.36 | 2.87 |
| 5.5 | 1.57 | 2.28 |
| 6 | 1.68 | 2.07 |
| 6.5 | 1.85 | 1.88 |
| 7 | 2.09 | 1.66 |
| 7.5 | 2.36 | 1.53 |
| 8 | 2.67 | 1.41 |
| 8.5 | 2.85 | 1.37 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 115 | 65 | 50 | +66 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 117 | 63 | 54 | +30 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 116 | 52 | 64 | +5 | 45 | — |
| 4 | Yakult Swallows | 115 | 51 | 64 | -79 | 44 | — |
| 5 | Chunichi Dragons | 119 | 51 | 68 | -6 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 112 | 46 | 66 | -74 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 116 | 72 | 44 | +181 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 119 | 67 | 52 | +37 | 56 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 119 | 65 | 54 | +64 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 118 | 56 | 62 | -71 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 113 | 52 | 61 | -71 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 115 | 45 | 70 | -82 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsOrix BuffaloesFukuoka S. HawksFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Chunichi Dragons vs Yakult Swallows?+
Our AI model favors Chunichi Dragons to win, with a 62.5% probability (Yakult Swallows 37.5%).
What time does Chunichi Dragons vs Yakult Swallows start?+
First pitch is at Aug 22, 2026, 5:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Chunichi Dragons vs Yakult Swallows?+
Chunichi Dragons: 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0. Yakult Swallows: 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 2, 0. Final: 5-4.