Chunichi Dragons vs Yakult Swallows
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chunichi Dragons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 | 7 | 0 |
 Yakult Swallows | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-3
Data suggests the Chunichi Dragons enter this matchup with a strong historical edge against the Yakult Swallows, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters. Despite a lower overall win percentage this season, Chunichi's home performance, combined with Yakult's struggles away, indicates a possible close contest favoring the home team.
- Chunichi Dragons have won 5 of their last 6 matchups against Yakult Swallows.
- Yakult Swallows have a lower away win rate of 40% compared to Chunichi's 45% home win rate.
- Chunichi's recent scoring average over the last 10 games stands at only 2.9 runs per game.
Confidence is high because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Chunichi Dragons
- Tighter defenseYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows are conceding just 3.8 runs per game over their recent matches.
3.8/game conceded - Historical edgeChunichi Dragons
Chunichi Dragons have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
4/5 H2H wins - Poor recent formChunichi Dragons
Chunichi Dragons have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Poor recent formYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 55% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Chunichi Dragons at 55% — final result was Chunichi Dragons win, Chunichi Dragons 3-2 Yakult Swallows.
Predicted score was 4-3.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (72/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Chunichi Dragons have averaged 2.6 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yakult Swallows have averaged 3.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Chunichi Dragons are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 meetings with Yakult Swallows.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Chunichi Dragons | Yakult Swallows |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 3.31 | 1.29 |
| -2 | 3.02 | 1.33 |
| -1.5 | 2.43 | 1.52 |
| -1 | 1.95 | 1.73 |
| -0.5 | 1.67 | 2.09 |
| +0.5 | 1.60 | 2.21 |
| +1 | 1.36 | 2.75 |
| +1.5 | 1.32 | 3.09 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.41 | 2.67 |
| 5.5 | 1.64 | 2.15 |
| 6 | 1.77 | 1.94 |
| 6.5 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
| 7 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| 7.5 | 2.51 | 1.48 |
| 8 | 2.85 | 1.37 |
| 8.5 | 2.94 | 1.35 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 116 | 66 | 50 | +69 | 57 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 118 | 63 | 55 | +27 | 53 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 117 | 53 | 64 | +6 | 45 | — |
| 4 | Yakult Swallows | 116 | 52 | 64 | -71 | 45 | — |
| 5 | Chunichi Dragons | 120 | 51 | 69 | -7 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 113 | 46 | 67 | -82 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 117 | 72 | 45 | +180 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 120 | 68 | 52 | +38 | 57 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 120 | 66 | 54 | +66 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 119 | 57 | 62 | -70 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 114 | 52 | 62 | -73 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 116 | 45 | 71 | -83 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Seibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHanshin TigersYomiuri GiantsHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsYokohama BayStarsChunichi DragonsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Chunichi Dragons vs Yakult Swallows?+
Our AI model favors Chunichi Dragons to win, with a 55% probability (Yakult Swallows 45%).
What time does Chunichi Dragons vs Yakult Swallows start?+
First pitch is at Aug 23, 2026, 4:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Chunichi Dragons vs Yakult Swallows?+
Chunichi Dragons: 0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0. Yakult Swallows: 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 3-2.