Counties Manukau vs Tasman — Bunnings NPC

Bunnings NPC· 3

Counties Manukau

35–50Full-time

Tasman

LLWLLLPoints 335-316

WWLLWWPoints 343-301

Home11W 0D 9L(645-616)

Away9W 0D 11L(536-538)

Value found

+64.8% edge

Counties Manukau win

2AI fair odds

3.30Bookmaker odds

+64.8%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today

Kickoff

In Progress

Full-time

Score by half

Team	1H	2H	Final
Counties Manukau	—	—	35
Tasman	—	—	50

AI match analysis

Counties Manukau win

50%

Draw

Tasman win

50%

Predicted score: 33-32

The analysis indicates a balanced matchup, as both Counties Manukau and Tasman show strong offensive capabilities with their recent scoring averages. Counties Manukau maintains an undefeated record at home over their last five games, while Tasman's recent form has seen them struggle, losing their last three matches. The last head-to-head encounter also favored Counties Manukau, where they scored significantly, suggesting they have a slight edge in this upcoming fixture.

Counties Manukau undefeated in last 5 home games
Tasman has lost their last 3 matches
Counties Manukau won the last head-to-head match, scoring 49 points

AI ConfidenceLow confidence

30/100

Confidence is low because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Counties Manukau

Poor recent formCounties Manukau
Counties Manukau have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Good recent formTasman
Tasman have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L
Tighter defenseTasman
Tasman are conceding just 30.1 points per game over their recent matches.
30.1/game conceded
Historical edgeTasman
Tasman have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two teams.
2/3 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

Below-average model confidence
Overall model confidence for this match is 30/100 — treat the prediction as directional rather than decisive.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 50% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Counties Manukau at 50% — final result was Tasman win, Counties Manukau 35-50 Tasman.

Predicted score was 33-32.

The model itself flagged this as a low confidence pick (30/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Tasman ✓1.35market 74.2% · model 50%

Counties Manukau3.30market 30.3% · model 50%

Draw24.00market 4.2% · model 0%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Counties Manukau have averaged 33.5 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Tasman have averaged 34.3 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Counties Manukau are unbeaten in 1 of the last 3 meetings with Tasman.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Counties Manukau3.30best 3.50AI 50%

Draw24.00best 29.00AI 0%

Tasman1.35best 1.39AI 50%

Points spread

Line	Counties Manukau	Tasman
+6	2.10	1.75
+6.5	2.01	1.74
+7	2.08	1.76
+7.5	1.93	1.81
+8	1.90	1.92
+8.5	1.84	1.89
+9.5	1.76	1.97
+10.5	1.68	2.05

Total points

Line	Over	Under
58.5	1.83	1.91
59	1.83	1.92
59.5	1.89	1.85
60	1.95	1.81
60.5	1.90	1.85
61	1.89	1.88
61.5	1.98	1.77
63	1.87	1.89

Average price across 8 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Model vs market

Counties Manukau win+21pp

50%

Market

29%

Tasman win-21pp

50%

Market

71%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.