CSKA Moscow vs Fakel — Premier League

Premier League· Regular Season - 4

CSKA Moscow

1–0Full-time

Fakel

DDWDLWGoals 11-112nd in league

DLLDLDGoals 7-914th in league

Home3W 2D 0L(7-4)

Away0W 0D 2L(2-4)

Match events

24'Igor Yurganov (Axel Gnapi)
27'Goal Disallowed - video review — Igor Yurganov
46'T. Musaev (L. Gondou)
46'Matheus Alves
52'Vyacheslav Yakimov
54'V. Torop
54'Axel Gnapi
64'Alexey Sutormin (A. Bagamaev)
64'N. Giorgobiani (Butta Magomedov)
65'M. Popovic (I. Firov)
66'Matheus Alves (D. Kozlov)
71'I. Oblyakov
73'Ilnur Alshin (Anton Kovalev)
73'Axel Gnapi (Belajdi Pusi)
76'I. Firov
84'Igor Yurganov (Merabi Uridia)
90'D. Krugovoy (K. Glebov)

Lineups

CSKA Moscow

Fakel

4-1-4-15-3-2

Dmitriy IgdisamovCoach

Oleg Vasilenko

AI match analysis

CSKA Moscow win

61%

Draw

23%

Fakel win

16%

37.5%BTTS

29.6%Over 2.5

40.7%CSKA Moscow clean sheet

36.8%Fakel clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests CSKA Moscow is in a stronger position, having not lost at home this season and performing better overall in recent matches. Fakel Voronezh, on the other hand, is struggling at the bottom of the league and has not yet secured an away point. The head-to-head data also favors CSKA, making them likely to edge this match.

CSKA Moscow unbeaten at home this season (1W, 2D)
Fakel Voronezh has only 1 point from 3 matches, struggling for form
CSKA Moscow has a superior head-to-head record against Fakel Voronezh with recent wins

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

98/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors CSKA Moscow

Higher league positionCSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow sit 12 places above Fakel in the table.
#2 vs #14
Strong home recordCSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow have won 3 of their last 5 home matches.
3/5 home wins
Weak away recordFakel
Fakel have won 0 of their last 2 away matches.
0/2 away wins
Sharper attackCSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.1 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.1/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked CSKA Moscow at 61% — final result was CSKA Moscow win, CSKA Moscow 1-0 Fakel.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (98/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

CSKA Moscow ✓1.59market 62.8% · model 61%

Draw4.06market 24.6% · model 23%

Fakel5.73market 17.5% · model 16%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

CSKA Moscow have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Fakel have averaged 0.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4CSKA Moscow wins

3Draws

1Fakel wins

13-6Goals

Fakel

0–1Dec 8, 2024, 1:30 PM

CSKA Moscow

0–0Oct 26, 2024, 1:30 PM

Fakel

CSKA Moscow

4–1Apr 7, 2024, 11:00 AM

Fakel

1–1Nov 11, 2023, 11:00 AM

CSKA Moscow

Fakel

1–1Oct 4, 2023, 11:30 AM

CSKA Moscow

0–2Aug 9, 2023, 3:30 PM

Fakel

0–2Apr 2, 2023, 1:30 PM

CSKA Moscow

4–1Aug 6, 2022, 2:30 PM

Fakel

Odds comparison

Match winner

CSKA Moscow1.59▲best 1.62

Draw4.06▼best 4.31

Fakel5.73▼best 6.31

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.93▼best 1.96

Under 2.51.94▲best 1.98

Both teams to score

Yes1.91▼best 1.92

No1.80▲best 1.80

Double chance

CSKA Moscow/Draw1.13▲best 1.16

CSKA Moscow/Fakel1.24▲best 1.26

Draw/Fakel2.38▼best 2.49

Average and best price across 5 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

CSKA Moscow1.59▲ 0.19

Draw4.06▼ 0.88

Fakel5.73▼ 2.61

12 Aug – 15 Aug

Model vs market

CSKA Moscow win+1.1pp

AI

61%

Market

59.9%

Draw-0.5pp

AI

23%

Market

23.5%

Fakel win-0.6pp

AI

16%

Market

16.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.