Hiroshima Carp vs Chunichi Dragons
Value found
+4.5% edgeHiroshima Carp win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hiroshima Carp | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | — | 11 | 15 | 1 |
 Chunichi Dragons | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-3
The data suggests that the Hiroshima Carp hold a significant historical advantage over the Chunichi Dragons, having won their last five encounters. Currently, the Dragons are averaging fewer runs scored in recent games compared to the Carp, who also display a solid home win rate of 55%. Taking these factors into account, statistical analysis favors the Carp to narrowly secure the win, potentially ending with a score of 4-3.
- Hiroshima Carp has won their last 5 consecutive matchups against Chunichi Dragons.
- Chunichi Dragons has a lower recent average runs scored (3.3) compared to Hiroshima Carp (2.3).
- Hiroshima Carp's home win rate this season stands at 55%.
- Chunichi Dragons struggles away, shown by their 50% win rate on the road.
Confidence is moderate because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Hiroshima Carp
- Tighter defenseChunichi Dragons
Chunichi Dragons are conceding just 2.3 runs per game over their recent matches.
2.3/game conceded - Sharper attackChunichi Dragons
Chunichi Dragons are averaging 2.6 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
2.6/game - Historical edgeHiroshima Carp
Hiroshima Carp have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
5/5 H2H wins - Poor recent formHiroshima Carp
Hiroshima Carp have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 53% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Hiroshima Carp at 53% — final result was Hiroshima Carp win, Hiroshima Carp 11-4 Chunichi Dragons.
Predicted score was 4-3.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (67/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Hiroshima Carp have averaged 2.3 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Chunichi Dragons have averaged 2.6 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Hiroshima Carp are unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 meetings with Chunichi Dragons.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Hiroshima Carp | Chunichi Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.07▲ | 1.33 |
| -1 | 2.56▲ | 1.41▼ |
| -0.5 | 2.05 | 1.69 |
| +0.5 | 1.90 | 1.79 |
| +1 | 1.66▼ | 2.04▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.54▲ | 2.40▲ |
| +2 | 1.38▼ | 2.78▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.32▲ | 3.12▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 1.50▲ | 2.44▼ |
| 6 | 1.58▲ | 2.24▼ |
| 6.5 | 1.74▲ | 2.01▼ |
| 7 | 1.95▲ | 1.77▼ |
| 7.5 | 2.20▲ | 1.61▼ |
| 8 | 2.47▲ | 1.48▼ |
| 8.5 | 2.62▲ | 1.45▼ |
| 9 | 3.08 | 1.33 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 116 | 66 | 50 | +69 | 57 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 118 | 63 | 55 | +27 | 53 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 117 | 53 | 64 | +6 | 45 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 116 | 52 | 64 | -71 | 45 | — |
| 5 | Chunichi Dragons | 120 | 51 | 69 | -7 | 43 | — |
| 6 | Hiroshima Carp | 113 | 46 | 67 | -82 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 117 | 72 | 45 | +180 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 120 | 68 | 52 | +38 | 57 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 120 | 66 | 54 | +66 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 119 | 57 | 62 | -70 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 114 | 52 | 62 | -73 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 116 | 45 | 71 | -83 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Orix BuffaloesFukuoka S. HawksSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsHanshin TigersYomiuri GiantsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Hiroshima Carp vs Chunichi Dragons?+
Our AI model favors Hiroshima Carp to win, with a 53% probability (Chunichi Dragons 47%).
What time does Hiroshima Carp vs Chunichi Dragons start?+
First pitch is at Aug 18, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Hiroshima Carp vs Chunichi Dragons?+
Hiroshima Carp: 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 8, 1. Chunichi Dragons: 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1. Final: 11-4.