Hiroshima Carp vs Chunichi Dragons
Value found
+2.5% edgeHiroshima Carp win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hiroshima Carp | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 | 7 | 0 |
 Chunichi Dragons | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 5-4
Data suggests that Hiroshima Carp has a strong historical advantage over Chunichi Dragons, winning 8 of their last 10 matchups. Despite a lower overall win percentage this season, Carp's home performance and their recent success against the Dragons indicate a slight edge in this matchup.
- Hiroshima Carp won 8 of the last 10 encounters against Chunichi Dragons.
- Hiroshima Carp has a home win rate of 55% this season.
- Chunichi Dragons has struggled recently with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games.
Confidence is moderate because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Hiroshima Carp
- Historical edgeHiroshima Carp
Hiroshima Carp have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
5/5 H2H wins - Tighter defenseChunichi Dragons
Chunichi Dragons are conceding just 2.3 runs per game over their recent matches.
2.3/game conceded - Strong home recordHiroshima Carp
Hiroshima Carp have won 10 of their last 20 home matches.
10/20 home wins - Weak away recordChunichi Dragons
Chunichi Dragons have won 6 of their last 20 away matches.
6/20 away wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 52% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Hiroshima Carp at 52% — final result was Hiroshima Carp win, Hiroshima Carp 4-1 Chunichi Dragons.
Predicted score was 5-4.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (67/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Hiroshima Carp have averaged 2.3 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Chunichi Dragons have averaged 2.6 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Hiroshima Carp are unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 meetings with Chunichi Dragons.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Hiroshima Carp | Chunichi Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.93▼ | 1.35 |
| -1 | 2.46 | 1.44 |
| -0.5 | 2.02▲ | 1.71▼ |
| +0.5 | 1.91▲ | 1.79▼ |
| +1 | 1.68 | 2.01 |
| +1.5 | 1.56▼ | 2.33▲ |
| +2 | 1.41▼ | 2.65▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.35 | 2.95▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.36 | 2.76 |
| 6.5 | 1.50▲ | 2.46▼ |
| 7 | 1.61 | 2.16▼ |
| 7.5 | 1.82 | 1.92▲ |
| 8 | 1.96▲ | 1.76 |
| 8.5 | 2.13▲ | 1.64▼ |
| 9 | 2.45▲ | 1.49 |
| 9.5 | 2.71▲ | 1.44 |
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 116 | 66 | 50 | +69 | 57 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 118 | 63 | 55 | +27 | 53 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 117 | 53 | 64 | +6 | 45 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 116 | 52 | 64 | -71 | 45 | — |
| 5 | Chunichi Dragons | 120 | 51 | 69 | -7 | 43 | — |
| 6 | Hiroshima Carp | 113 | 46 | 67 | -82 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 117 | 72 | 45 | +180 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 120 | 68 | 52 | +38 | 57 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 120 | 66 | 54 | +66 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 119 | 57 | 62 | -70 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 114 | 52 | 62 | -73 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 116 | 45 | 71 | -83 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Seibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHanshin TigersYomiuri GiantsHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsYokohama BayStarsChunichi DragonsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Hiroshima Carp vs Chunichi Dragons?+
Our AI model favors Hiroshima Carp to win, with a 52% probability (Chunichi Dragons 48%).
What time does Hiroshima Carp vs Chunichi Dragons start?+
First pitch is at Aug 19, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Hiroshima Carp vs Chunichi Dragons?+
Hiroshima Carp: 3, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0. Chunichi Dragons: 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 4-1.