Hiroshima Carp vs Hanshin Tigers
Value found
+0.9% edgeHanshin Tigers win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hiroshima Carp | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 Hanshin Tigers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 3-5
The numbers favor the Hanshin Tigers, who have a significantly better season win percentage and have been strong on the road with a 58% away win rate. Despite Hiroshima Carp's recent victories in head-to-head matchups, their overall struggles and the fact they allow an average of 5.5 runs per game suggest they may struggle defensively. Based on this analysis, a predicted score of 5-3 in favor of the away team seems plausible.
- Hiroshima Carp has won 5 of their last 10 games, showing some recent form.
- Hanshin Tigers hold a strong overall record of 58-47, ranking 1st in the division.
- Historically, Hiroshima Carp has outperformed Hanshin in recent matchups, winning 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Hanshin Tigers
- Tighter defenseHanshin Tigers
Hanshin Tigers are conceding just 2.4 runs per game over their recent matches.
2.4/game conceded - Higher league positionHanshin Tigers
Hanshin Tigers sit 5 places above Hiroshima Carp in the table.
#1 vs #6 - Historical edgeHanshin Tigers
Hanshin Tigers have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Poor recent formHiroshima Carp
Hiroshima Carp have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Hanshin Tigers at 59% — final result was Hanshin Tigers win, Hiroshima Carp 1-8 Hanshin Tigers.
Predicted score was 3-5.
This was a high confidence pick (78/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Hiroshima Carp have averaged 2.3 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Hanshin Tigers have averaged 2.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Hiroshima Carp are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Hanshin Tigers.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Hiroshima Carp | Hanshin Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.21▲ | 1.30▼ |
| -1 | 2.63▼ | 1.39▲ |
| -0.5 | 2.11▲ | 1.65▼ |
| +0.5 | 2.00▲ | 1.73▼ |
| +1 | 1.74▼ | 1.93▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.59▲ | 2.26▼ |
| +2 | 1.45▲ | 2.58▼ |
| +2.5 | 1.36▼ | 2.93▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 1.44▲ | 2.63▼ |
| 6 | 1.48▲ | 2.46▼ |
| 6.5 | 1.65▲ | 2.12▼ |
| 7 | 1.80▲ | 1.91▼ |
| 7.5 | 2.07▲ | 1.71▼ |
| 8 | 2.24▲ | 1.59▼ |
| 8.5 | 2.47▲ | 1.49▼ |
| 9 | 2.85▲ | 1.34▼ |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hanshin Tigers | 116 | 66 | 50 | +69 | 57 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 118 | 63 | 55 | +27 | 53 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 117 | 53 | 64 | +6 | 45 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 116 | 52 | 64 | -71 | 45 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 120 | 51 | 69 | -7 | 43 | — |
| 6 | Hiroshima Carp | 113 | 46 | 67 | -82 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 117 | 72 | 45 | +180 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 120 | 68 | 52 | +38 | 57 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 120 | 66 | 54 | +66 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 119 | 57 | 62 | -70 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 114 | 52 | 62 | -73 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 116 | 45 | 71 | -83 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesOrix BuffaloesFukuoka S. HawksSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Hiroshima Carp vs Hanshin Tigers?+
Our AI model favors Hanshin Tigers to win, with a 59% probability (Hiroshima Carp 41%).
What time does Hiroshima Carp vs Hanshin Tigers start?+
First pitch is at Aug 16, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Hiroshima Carp vs Hanshin Tigers?+
Hiroshima Carp: 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0. Hanshin Tigers: 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 2, 2. Final: 1-8.