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NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus

UEFA Champions League· 3rd Qualifying Round
NEC Nijmegen
2–1After Extra Time
Olympiakos Piraeus
LWLLGoals 17-15
WLDWGoals 11-16
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 13'Dani García
  2. 15'Jota Silva (K. Fortounis)
  3. 27'Sami Ouaissa (Emre Mor)
  4. 30'Sami Ouaissa (Emre Mor)
  5. 34'Philippe Sandler (B. Pereira)
  6. 46'Ayoub El Kaabi
  7. 55'Rodinei
  8. 59'G. Sa
  9. 61'G. Sa (C. Mouzakitis)
  10. 70'B. Linssen (D. Tadic)
  11. 72'Dani García (L. Scipioni)
  12. 72'Gelson Martins (Joel Roca)
  13. 77'K. Fortounis
  14. 80'K. Fortounis
  15. 88'B. Pereira
  16. 88'Clement Bischoff (K. Sierhuis)
  17. 90+3'K. Sierhuis (Emre Mor)
  18. 90+3'Goal Disallowed - offside — K. Sierhuis
  19. 90+4'K. Sierhuis
  20. 95'Emre Mor (K. Sierhuis)
  21. 103'P. Retsos (Zinedin Smajlović)
  22. 103'C. Mouzakitis (Chiquinho)
  23. 106'Emre Mor (Kevin Kers)
  24. 106'N. Lebreton (B. Nuytinck)
  25. 106'B. Linssen (Jamiro)
  26. 112'B. Onyemaechi

Lineups

NEC Nijmegen
Olympiakos Piraeus
3-4-2-14-2-3-1
1
1. G. Crettaz
24
24. D. Fonville
← 34'
3. Philippe Sandler
21
21. Tobias Storm
20
← 106'
20. N. Lebreton
10
10. D. Tadic
6
6. D. Nejašmić
← 30'
25. Sami Ouaissa
99
← 88'
99. Clement Bischoff
9
9. T. Chery
30
← 106'
30. B. Linssen
9. Ayoub El Kaabi
← 15'
20. Jota Silva
8
← 61'
8. G. Sa
← 72'
10. Gelson Martins
32
32. S. Hezze
← 72'
14. Dani García
70
70. B. Onyemaechi
5
5. L. Pirola
45
← 103'
45. P. Retsos
23. Rodinei
31
31. Balša Popović
Dick SchreuderCoachLuis Mendilibar Jose
Bench (11)
Bench (12)
NEC NijmegenOlympiakos Piraeus
1.7
Goals/game
1.1
1.5
Conceded/game
1.6

AI match analysis

NEC Nijmegen win
35%
Draw
28%
Olympiakos Piraeus win
37%
58.8%BTTS
56.6%Over 2.5
27.3%NEC Nijmegen clean sheet
19.2%Olympiakos Piraeus clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Data suggests that NEC Nijmegen struggles defensively, with an average of 1.4 goals conceded in their last matches. Conversely, Olympiakos Piraeus has been more solid defensively, allowing just 1 goal in their last three outings. Based on recent form and xG metrics, the predicted score tilts towards a slight advantage for Olympiakos.

  • NEC Nijmegen in poor form with 1 win in last 5 matches
  • Olympiakos Piraeus conceded only 1 goal in last 3 matches
  • Recent xG shows NEC averaging 1.89 but also conceding 1.4 per game
AI ConfidenceLow confidence
48/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and this fixture has limited historical data available so far.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Olympiakos Piraeus

  • Sharper attackNEC Nijmegen

    NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.7 goals scored per game over their recent matches.

    1.7/game
  • Poor recent formNEC Nijmegen

    NEC Nijmegen have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.

    1W 0D 4L
  • Good recent formOlympiakos Piraeus

    Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 1D 1L
  • Tighter defenseNEC Nijmegen

    NEC Nijmegen are conceding just 1.5 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1.5/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 37% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

  • No head-to-head history

    These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Olympiakos Piraeus at 37% — final result was NEC Nijmegen win, NEC Nijmegen 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself flagged this as a low confidence pick (48/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Olympiakos Piraeus2.50market 40.1% · model 37%
NEC Nijmegen ✓2.73market 36.6% · model 35%
Draw3.30market 30.3% · model 28%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • NEC Nijmegen have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Olympiakos Piraeus have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

NEC Nijmegen2.73▲best 2.85
Draw3.30▼best 3.49
Olympiakos Piraeus2.50▼best 2.65

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.81▼best 1.87
Under 2.51.97▲best 2.04

Both teams to score

Yes1.62▼best 1.67
No2.16▲best 2.25

Double chance

NEC Nijmegen/Draw1.50▲best 1.56
NEC Nijmegen/Olympiakos Piraeus1.31best 1.34
Draw/Olympiakos Piraeus1.43▼best 1.47

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.28▼best 1.28
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.50▲best 3.50
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.75▲best 3.75
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.25▼best 1.25

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

NEC Nijmegen2.73▲ 0.08
Draw3.30▲ 0.10
Olympiakos Piraeus2.50▼ 0.05
9 Aug – 11 Aug

Model vs market

NEC Nijmegen win+0.8pp
AI
35%
Market
34.2%
Draw-0.3pp
AI
28%
Market
28.3%
Olympiakos Piraeus win-0.4pp
AI
37%
Market
37.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Standings not available yet.

Pre-match comparison

1.7Goals scored per game1.1
1.5Goals conceded per game1.6

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

M. Mariani

4Yellow cards / game
0.07Red cards / game
0.15Penalties scored / game

Based on 27 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

NEC Nijmegen

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
16.7%
46-60'
16.7%
61-75'
33.3%
76-90+'
33.3%

Olympiakos Piraeus

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
0%
46-60'
33.3%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
66.7%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus?+

Our AI model favors Olympiakos Piraeus to win, with a 37% probability (Draw 28%, NEC Nijmegen 35%).

What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 11, 2026, 5:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).