New York Liberty W vs Los Angeles Sparks W
Barclays Center
Value found
+148.1% edgeLos Angeles Sparks W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 160 total points vs the market's 187 line — leans under by 27 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New York Liberty W | 21 | 28 | 18 | 18 | 85 |
 Los Angeles Sparks W | 16 | 16 | 9 | 40 | 81 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 77-83
Statistical trends suggest that Los Angeles Sparks W may have the upper hand in this matchup, given their higher scoring average of 83.2 points over their last 10 games compared to New York Liberty W's 76.1. Additionally, Los Angeles has a favorable head-to-head record recently, winning 3 of their last 5 encounters against New York, including a close one earlier this season. New York, on the other hand, struggles with consistency, having lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Sparks W averaging 83.2 points scored in last 10 matches
- New York Liberty W has lost 3 of their last 5 games
- Head-to-head history shows Los Angeles Sparks W winning 3 out of the last 5 encounters
Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Los Angeles Sparks W
- Historical edgeNew York Liberty W
New York Liberty W have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Los Angeles Sparks W at 65% — final result was New York Liberty W win, New York Liberty W 85-81 Los Angeles Sparks W.
Predicted score was 77-83.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (68/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- New York Liberty W have averaged 81.4 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Los Angeles Sparks W have averaged 79.6 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- New York Liberty W are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Los Angeles Sparks W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | New York Liberty W | Los Angeles Sparks W |
|---|---|---|
| -10 | 2.11▲ | 1.68▼ |
| -9.5 | 1.99 | 1.78▲ |
| -9 | 1.95 | 1.83▲ |
| -8.5 | 1.89 | 1.89▲ |
| -8 | 1.83▲ | 1.95 |
| -7.5 | 1.76▲ | 2.00 |
| -7 | 1.70▲ | 2.08 |
| -6.5 | 1.65 | 2.14 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 185.5 | 1.75▲ | 2.00▼ |
| 186 | 1.80▲ | 1.96▼ |
| 186.5 | 1.85▲ | 1.92▼ |
| 187 | 1.88▲ | 1.87▼ |
| 187.5 | 1.93▲ | 1.83▼ |
| 188 | 1.97▲ | 1.77▼ |
| 188.5 | 1.99▲ | 1.76▼ |
| 189 | 1.99▼ | 1.75▲ |
Double chance
Average price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Box score
New York Liberty W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ionescu | 32:36 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 0/0 | 1/9 | 7/9 |
| R. Allen | 25:41 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0/0 | 3/5 | 0/0 |
| B. Stewart | 31:09 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 1/2 |
| J. Jones | 33:17 | 11 | 18 | 4 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/2 |
| Astier Pauline | 17:19 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/1 |
Bench (4)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johannes Marine | 21:59 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0/0 | 2/5 | 2/2 |
| Han Xu | 15:34 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 2/2 |
| Gardner Rebekah | 12:32 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 |
| Fauthoux Marine | 9:54 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
Los Angeles Sparks W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Burrell | 33:16 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 0/0 | 5/10 | 3/5 |
| D. Hamby | 30:12 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/5 |
| N. Ogwumike | 30:38 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 2/3 |
| Wheeler Erica | 28:44 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/0 |
| A. Atkins | 28:12 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/0 |
Bench (4)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Brink | 19:10 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/0 |
| C. Gray | 12:10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 0/0 |
| Park Ji-Hyun | 9:32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/0 |
| K. Williams | 8:06 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/0 |
Match statistics
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Los Angeles Sparks WNew York Liberty WNew York Liberty WLos Angeles Sparks WNew York Liberty WLos Angeles Sparks WLos Angeles Sparks WNew York Liberty WLos Angeles Sparks WNew York Liberty WLeague standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 2 |  Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 3 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 4 |  Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 5 |  Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 6 |  Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 7 |  Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 |  Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 5 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 6 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 7 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 8 |  Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 9 |  Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 10 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 11 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 12 |  Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 15 |  Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 5 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 8 | Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
New York Liberty WChicago Sky WPhoenix Mercury WToronto Tempo WAtlanta Dream WMinnesota Lynx WSeattle Storm WLos Angeles Sparks WFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win New York Liberty W vs Los Angeles Sparks W?+
Our AI model favors Los Angeles Sparks W to win, with a 65% probability (New York Liberty W 35%).
What time does New York Liberty W vs Los Angeles Sparks W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 14, 2026, 12:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in New York Liberty W vs Los Angeles Sparks W?+
New York Liberty W: 21-28-18-18. Los Angeles Sparks W: 16-16-9-40. Final: 85-81.