New York Mets vs Houston Astros

MLB
LWLLRuns 33-425th in NL East Division · 60-73
LWLWRuns 39-541st in AL West Division · 66-67
Home10W 10L(81-88)
Away10W 10L(83-84)
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Final

AI match analysis

Preliminary — updates once lineups are confirmed

New York Mets win
48%
Houston Astros win
52%

Predicted score: 4-5

Data suggests that the Houston Astros hold a slight edge over the New York Mets given their stronger league standing and recent performance. Although both teams have identical win rates at home and away, the Astros have demonstrated better offensive consistency in their last 10 games compared to the Mets. The historical head-to-head also favors the Astros slightly, which may contribute to their predicted narrow win.

  • Houston Astros rank 6th in the American League, while the Mets rank 13th in the National League
  • Astros have won 2 of the last 5 meetings against the Mets
  • Mets are allowing 4.2 runs per game in their last 10 games, while the Astros are allowing 5.4 runs per game
  • Both teams have a home and away win rate of 50% this season.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
55/100

Confidence is moderate because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly. Shown in English — a localized version is being prepared.

Why AI favors Houston Astros

  • Higher league positionHouston Astros

    Houston Astros sit 4 places above New York Mets in the table.

    #1 vs #5
  • Historical edgeHouston Astros

    Houston Astros have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    4/5 H2H wins
  • Sharper attackHouston Astros

    Houston Astros are averaging 3.9 runs scored per game over their recent matches.

    3.9/game
  • Tighter defenseNew York Mets

    New York Mets are conceding just 4.2 runs per game over their recent matches.

    4.2/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 52% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

Match trends

  • New York Mets have averaged 3.3 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Houston Astros have averaged 3.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • New York Mets are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with Houston Astros.
Odds not available for this match yet.

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1New York Mets wins
4Houston Astros wins
16-25Runs

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Chicago White Sox
1337063+4453
2
Cleveland Guardians
1346866-451
3
Minnesota Twins
1346470-5648
4
Detroit Tigers
1336271+7047
5
Kansas City Royals
1345975-9244
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1337954+4759
2
New York Yankees
1327557+10457
3
Boston Red Sox
1337360+10155
4
Baltimore Orioles
1336568-2249
5
Toronto Blue Jays
1346569-5449
1
Houston Astros
1336667-4850
2
Texas Rangers
1346668-4749
3
Seattle Mariners
1346470-5748
4
Athletics
1345381-18540
5
Los Angeles Angels
1345282-7539
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1337954+4759
2
New York Yankees
1327557+10457
3
Boston Red Sox
1337360+10155
4
Chicago White Sox
1337063+4453
5
Cleveland Guardians
1346866-451
6
Houston Astros
1336667-4850
7
Texas Rangers
1346668-4749
8
Baltimore Orioles
1336568-2249
9
Toronto Blue Jays
1346569-5449
10
Seattle Mariners
1346470-5748
11
Minnesota Twins
1346470-5648
12
Detroit Tigers
1336271+7047
13
Kansas City Royals
1345975-9244
14
Athletics
1345381-18540
15
Los Angeles Angels
1345282-7539
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1338251+16762
2
Chicago Cubs
1347658+11957
3
St.Louis Cardinals
1346668-1549
4
Pittsburgh Pirates
1356570+2448
5
Cincinnati Reds
1346371-10047
1
Atlanta Braves
1337855+11259
2
Philadelphia Phillies
1347460+2355
3
Miami Marlins
1346866+1951
4
Washington Nationals
1356273+646
5
New York Mets
1336073-4645
1
Los Angeles Dodgers
1338053+14960
2
San Diego Padres
1347262+1754
3
Arizona Diamondbacks
1347163+553
4
San Francisco Giants
1335479-7441
5
Colorado Rockies
1335281-13239
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1338251+16762
2
Los Angeles Dodgers
1338053+14960
3
Atlanta Braves
1337855+11259
4
Chicago Cubs
1347658+11957
5
Philadelphia Phillies
1347460+2355
6
San Diego Padres
1347262+1754
7
Arizona Diamondbacks
1347163+553
8
Miami Marlins
1346866+1951
9
St.Louis Cardinals
1346668-1549
10
Pittsburgh Pirates
1356570+2448
11
Cincinnati Reds
1346371-10047
12
Washington Nationals
1356273+646
13
New York Mets
1336073-4645
14
San Francisco Giants
1335479-7441
15
Colorado Rockies
1335281-13239

More MLB predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win New York Mets vs Houston Astros?+

Our AI model favors Houston Astros to win, with a 52% probability (New York Mets 48%).

What time does New York Mets vs Houston Astros start?+

First pitch is at Aug 29, 2026, 8:10 PM (your local time, based on your device).