New York Yankees vs Houston Astros

MLB
WLWLRuns 49-332nd in AL East Division · 75-57
LWLWRuns 39-541st in AL West Division · 66-67
Home14W 6L(98-62)
Away10W 10L(83-84)
Today
First pitch
In Progress
Final

Box score

Team123456789RHE
New York Yankees
0030201107102
Houston Astros
0110120319140

AI match analysis

New York Yankees win
52%
Houston Astros win
38%

Predicted score: 4-3

Data suggests that the New York Yankees are in solid form at home, having won 4 of their last 5 home matches against various opponents. On the other hand, the Houston Astros have struggled defensively, allowing an average of 5.5 runs in their last 10 games, which could be detrimental in this matchup. The head-to-head history leans slightly in favor of the Yankees, further supporting their potential for a win at home.

  • New York Yankees won 4 of their last 5 matches at home.
  • Houston Astros have conceded an average of 5.5 runs over their last 10 matches.
  • In their last 5 encounters, New York Yankees lead with 3 wins against Houston.
  • Yankees are averaging 3.4 runs scored per game, while Astros averaged 3.9.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
65/100

Confidence is moderate because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors New York Yankees

  • Poor recent formNew York Yankees

    New York Yankees have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L
  • Poor recent formHouston Astros

    Houston Astros have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L
  • Historical edgeNew York Yankees

    New York Yankees have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    3/5 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 52% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked New York Yankees at 52% — final result was Houston Astros win, New York Yankees 7-9 Houston Astros.

Predicted score was 4-3.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (65/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

New York Yankees1.68market 59.3% · model 52%
Houston Astros2.22market 45% · model 38%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • New York Yankees have averaged 4.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Houston Astros have averaged 3.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • New York Yankees are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Houston Astros.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

New York Yankees1.68best 1.72AI 52%
Houston Astros2.22best 2.30AI 38%

Point spread

LineNew York YankeesHouston Astros
-33.651.26
-2.53.051.36
-22.771.42
-1.52.371.60
-11.971.82
+11.482.56
+1.51.412.84
+21.233.63

Total points

LineOverUnder
71.392.89
7.51.572.34
81.662.18
8.51.832.00
91.981.81
9.52.241.63
102.431.53
10.52.571.49

Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

New York Yankees1.68 0.01
Houston Astros2.22 0.02
25 Aug25 Aug

Model vs market

New York Yankees win-4.9pp
AI
52%
Market
56.9%
Houston Astros win-5.1pp
AI
38%
Market
43.1%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3New York Yankees wins
2Houston Astros wins
32-21Runs

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Chicago White Sox
1337063+4453
2
Cleveland Guardians
1346866-451
3
Minnesota Twins
1346470-5648
4
Detroit Tigers
1336271+7047
5
Kansas City Royals
1345975-9244
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1337954+4759
2
New York Yankees
1327557+10457
3
Boston Red Sox
1337360+10155
4
Baltimore Orioles
1336568-2249
5
Toronto Blue Jays
1346569-5449
1
Houston Astros
1336667-4850
2
Texas Rangers
1346668-4749
3
Seattle Mariners
1346470-5748
4
Athletics
1345381-18540
5
Los Angeles Angels
1345282-7539
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1337954+4759
2
New York Yankees
1327557+10457
3
Boston Red Sox
1337360+10155
4
Chicago White Sox
1337063+4453
5
Cleveland Guardians
1346866-451
6
Houston Astros
1336667-4850
7
Texas Rangers
1346668-4749
8
Baltimore Orioles
1336568-2249
9
Toronto Blue Jays
1346569-5449
10
Seattle Mariners
1346470-5748
11
Minnesota Twins
1346470-5648
12
Detroit Tigers
1336271+7047
13
Kansas City Royals
1345975-9244
14
Athletics
1345381-18540
15
Los Angeles Angels
1345282-7539
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1338251+16762
2
Chicago Cubs
1347658+11957
3
St.Louis Cardinals
1346668-1549
4
Pittsburgh Pirates
1356570+2448
5
Cincinnati Reds
1346371-10047
1
Atlanta Braves
1337855+11259
2
Philadelphia Phillies
1347460+2355
3
Miami Marlins
1346866+1951
4
Washington Nationals
1356273+646
5
New York Mets
1336073-4645
1
Los Angeles Dodgers
1338053+14960
2
San Diego Padres
1347262+1754
3
Arizona Diamondbacks
1347163+553
4
San Francisco Giants
1335479-7441
5
Colorado Rockies
1335281-13239
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1338251+16762
2
Los Angeles Dodgers
1338053+14960
3
Atlanta Braves
1337855+11259
4
Chicago Cubs
1347658+11957
5
Philadelphia Phillies
1347460+2355
6
San Diego Padres
1347262+1754
7
Arizona Diamondbacks
1347163+553
8
Miami Marlins
1346866+1951
9
St.Louis Cardinals
1346668-1549
10
Pittsburgh Pirates
1356570+2448
11
Cincinnati Reds
1346371-10047
12
Washington Nationals
1356273+646
13
New York Mets
1336073-4645
14
San Francisco Giants
1335479-7441
15
Colorado Rockies
1335281-13239

More MLB predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win New York Yankees vs Houston Astros?+

Our AI model favors New York Yankees to win, with a 52% probability (Houston Astros 48%).

What time does New York Yankees vs Houston Astros start?+

First pitch is at Aug 25, 2026, 11:05 PM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the inning-by-inning score in New York Yankees vs Houston Astros?+

New York Yankees: 0, 0, 3, 0, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0. Houston Astros: 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 0, 3, 1. Final: 7-9.