Newport County vs Rochdale
Match events
- 18'Kyle Cameron (Y. Bamba)
- 34'Tobi Adebayo-Rowling
- 39'S. Gwengwe (Harrison Biggins)
- 42'Bryant Akono Bilongo
- 53'L. Hannant
- 62'L. Hannant (Zain Silcott-Duberry)
- 65'C. Doidge (A. Merritt)
- 66'Bryant Akono Bilongo
- 66'Bryant Akono Bilongo
- 70'H. Gilmour (Edward Francis)
- 70'E. Dieseruvwe (K. Wilson)
- 70'R. East (Babajide Adeeko)
- 80'S. Gwengwe (Gerard Garner)
- 86'L. Jenkins
- 88'Cameron Evans (Matthew Smith)
- 90+1'Y. Bamba
- 90+5'A. Merritt
- 1.4
- Goals/game
- 1.6
- 1.8
- Conceded/game
- 1.7
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-2
Data suggests that Rochdale, currently ranked first, is likely to leverage their recent scoring form against Newport County, who have demonstrated a mix of results at home. Historically, their head-to-head matches have shown competitive outcomes, but Rochdale's superior standing and away performance may give them an edge. The numbers favor an away win, with Newport's home record still untested this season.
- Rochdale ranked 1st in the league
- Newport County's recent home form includes 2 wins out of 5
- Rochdale has an average of 1.5 goals scored in their last 10 matches
- Newport's last 5 head-to-head matches show mixed results, with both teams having wins
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Rochdale
- Higher league positionNewport County
Newport County sit 12 places above Rochdale in the table.
#11 vs #23 - Poor recent formNewport County
Newport County have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Poor recent formRochdale
Rochdale have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L - Historical edgeRochdale
Rochdale have won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams.
4/6 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 41% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Rochdale at 41.46% — final result was Newport County win, Newport County 3-0 Rochdale.
Predicted score was 1-2.
This was a high confidence pick (76/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Newport County have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Rochdale have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 |  Newport County | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | LW |
| 23 |  Rochdale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | LL |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Newport County
Rochdale
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NorthamptonFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Newport County vs Rochdale?+
Our AI model favors Rochdale to win, with a 41.46% probability (Draw 28.86%, Newport County 29.67%).
What time does Newport County vs Rochdale kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 11:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).