Orix Buffaloes vs Fukuoka S. Hawks
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Orix Buffaloes | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 | 9 | 0 |
 Fukuoka S. Hawks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-6
The data suggests that the Fukuoka S. Hawks, leading the Pacific Division with a strong away record, are favored against the Orix Buffaloes. Historically, Fukuoka has dominated their recent encounters with Orix, contributing to the predicted outcome. Based on recent performances, Orix's struggles in run production and defensive vulnerabilities further tilt the analysis toward a Hawks victory.
- Fukuoka S. Hawks have won 4 of their last 5 matchups against Orix Buffaloes.
- Orix Buffaloes have a home win rate of only 45% this season compared to Fukuoka's strong 84% away win rate.
- Orix Buffaloes are averaging 3.2 runs scored and 5.5 runs allowed in their last 10 games, indicating a lack of offensive consistency.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Fukuoka S. Hawks
- Tighter defenseFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks are conceding just 3 runs per game over their recent matches.
3/game conceded - Sharper attackFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks are averaging 4.9 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
4.9/game - Poor recent formOrix Buffaloes
Orix Buffaloes have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Good recent formFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Fukuoka S. Hawks at 62% — final result was Orix Buffaloes win, Orix Buffaloes 4-3 Fukuoka S. Hawks.
Predicted score was 4-6.
This was a high confidence pick (85/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Orix Buffaloes have averaged 2.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Fukuoka S. Hawks have averaged 4.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Orix Buffaloes are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Fukuoka S. Hawks.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Orix Buffaloes | Fukuoka S. Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 2.65 | 1.43 |
| +0.5 | 2.47 | 1.50 |
| +1 | 2.09 | 1.63 |
| +1.5 | 1.85 | 1.89 |
| +2 | 1.68 | 2.08 |
| +2.5 | 1.52 | 2.38 |
| +3 | 1.40 | 2.63 |
| +3.5 | 1.32 | 3.20 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 1.47 | 2.62 |
| 6 | 1.48 | 2.46 |
| 6.5 | 1.64 | 2.14 |
| 7 | 1.78 | 1.92 |
| 7.5 | 2.03 | 1.74 |
| 8 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| 8.5 | 2.42 | 1.51 |
| 9 | 2.84 | 1.35 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 115 | 65 | 50 | +66 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 117 | 63 | 54 | +30 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 116 | 52 | 64 | +5 | 45 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 115 | 51 | 64 | -79 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 119 | 51 | 68 | -6 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 112 | 46 | 66 | -74 | 41 | — |
| 1 | Fukuoka S. Hawks | 116 | 72 | 44 | +181 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 119 | 67 | 52 | +37 | 56 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 119 | 65 | 54 | +64 | 55 | — |
| 4 | Orix Buffaloes | 118 | 56 | 62 | -71 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 113 | 52 | 61 | -71 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 115 | 45 | 70 | -82 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesOrix BuffaloesFukuoka S. HawksSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Orix Buffaloes vs Fukuoka S. Hawks?+
Our AI model favors Fukuoka S. Hawks to win, with a 62% probability (Orix Buffaloes 38%).
What time does Orix Buffaloes vs Fukuoka S. Hawks start?+
First pitch is at Aug 29, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Orix Buffaloes vs Fukuoka S. Hawks?+
Orix Buffaloes: 0, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Fukuoka S. Hawks: 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0. Final: 4-3.