Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno — CONMEBOL Libertadores

CONMEBOL Libertadores· Round of 16

Palmeiras

1–1Full-time

Cerro Porteno

DDDLWWGoals 15-92nd in league

DWLWLLGoals 9-61st in league

Home2W 0D 1L(6-3)

Away2W 0D 1L(2-1)

Match events

41'F. Dominguez
50'M. Chaparro
53'F. Dominguez (J. Torres)
53'C. Domínguez (J. Torres)
58'A. D. Canete Torres
62'M. Chaparro (Guillermo Benítez)
63'A. Gamarra (Mateo Klimowicz)
68'E. Martinez (Arthur Gabriel)
70'Guillermo Benítez
70'Goal Disallowed - offside — Guillermo Benítez
73'Goal cancelled — Guillermo Benítez
75'Andreas Pereira
80'Vitor Roque (Lucas Evangelista)
80'Allan Elias (Felipe Anderson)
80'Jhon Arias (Ramón Sosa)
82'J. Lopez (Marlon Freitas)
86'J. Morel
87'J. Lopez (G. Gómez)
89'F. Dominguez (Ignacio Aliseda)
90+3'Carlos Miguel
90+6'Cesar Bobadilla

Lineups

Palmeiras

Cerro Porteno

4-4-2

5-3-2

Abel FerreiraCoach

Jorge Achucarro

AI match analysis

Palmeiras win

70%

Draw

21%

Cerro Porteno win

9%

38.6%BTTS

31%Over 2.5

40.7%Palmeiras clean sheet

35%Cerro Porteno clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-0

Data suggests Palmeiras will leverage their strong historical dominance over Cerro Porteno, having not lost to them in their last four meetings. Additionally, the home team has shown resilience with a solid recent form, including a notable away victory against Ceara. While Cerro Porteno has performed well lately, their away record indicates they might face challenges at Palmeiras.

Palmeiras has won the last 4 encounters against Cerro Porteno by a combined score of 10-0.
Cerro Porteno has a strong form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, but struggles in away games.
Palmeiras has only lost once at home this season in the Libertadores.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

99/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Palmeiras

Historical edgePalmeiras
Palmeiras have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
5/5 H2H wins
Good recent formPalmeiras
Palmeiras have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Poor recent formCerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Tighter defenseCerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno are conceding just 0.6 goals per game over their recent matches.
0.6/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Palmeiras at 70% — final result was a draw, Palmeiras 1-1 Cerro Porteno.

Predicted score was 2-0.

This was a high confidence pick (99/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Palmeiras1.34market 74.4% · model 70%

Draw ✓4.57market 21.9% · model 21%

Cerro Porteno9.91market 10.1% · model 9%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Palmeiras have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Cerro Porteno have averaged 0.9 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 5 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 0 of the last 5 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

5Palmeiras wins

0Draws

0Cerro Porteno wins

12-0Goals

Cerro Porteno

0–1Aug 19, 2026, 10:00 PM

Palmeiras

Cerro Porteno

0–2May 8, 2025, 12:30 AM

Palmeiras

1–0Apr 10, 2025, 12:30 AM

Cerro Porteno

Palmeiras

5–0Jul 6, 2022, 10:15 PM

Cerro Porteno

0–3Jun 29, 2022, 10:15 PM

Palmeiras

Odds comparison

Match winner

Palmeiras1.34▲best 1.39

Draw4.57▼best 4.80

Cerro Porteno9.91▲best 11.50

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.18▲best 2.29

Under 2.51.67▼best 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes2.68▲best 2.88

No1.42▼best 1.57

Double chance

Palmeiras/Draw1.05▲best 1.08

Palmeiras/Cerro Porteno1.18▲best 1.20

Draw/Cerro Porteno3.13▼best 3.30

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.12▲best 1.12

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes5.63▼best 6.00

Clean Sheet - Home — No2.34▲best 2.38

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes1.54▼best 1.55

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Palmeiras1.34▲ 0.02

Draw4.57▼ 0.53

Cerro Porteno9.91▲ 1.31

10 Aug – 12 Aug

Model vs market

Palmeiras win0pp

AI

70%

Market

70%

Draw+0.4pp

AI

21%

Market

20.6%

Cerro Porteno win-0.5pp

AI

9%

Market

9.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
2	Palmeiras	6	3	2	1	+5	11	WLWDW
1	Cerro Porteno	6	4	1	1	+4	13	WWWDW

Pre-match comparison

1.5Goals scored per game0.9

0.9Goals conceded per game0.6

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

Gustavo Tejera

5Yellow cards / game

0.5Red cards / game

0Penalties scored / game

Based on 2 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Palmeiras

0-15'

12.5%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

12.5%

46-60'

50%

61-75'

0%

76-90+'

25%

Cerro Porteno

0-15'

50%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

25%

46-60'

0%

61-75'

25%

76-90+'

0%

Match statistics

61%Possession39%

1.55Expected goals (xG)0.25

7Shots on target1

21Total shots8

11Shots off target4

3Blocked shots3

13Shots inside the box3

8Shots outside the box5

7Corners2

6Offsides1

10Fouls16

0Yellow cards5

1Red cards0

1Goalkeeper saves5

378Total passes248

311Accurate passes168

82%Pass accuracy68%

Player ratings

1J. LopezPalmeiras⚽ 18.2
2MuriloPalmeiras7.3
3Allan EliasPalmeiras7.3
4V. VelázquezCerro Porteno7.3
5L. A. Quintana RodriguezCerro Porteno7.3
6Alexander BarbozaPalmeiras7.2

Box score

Palmeiras

1Carlos MiguelG · 90'

6.0

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes13%

Tackles—

Duels—

32

32E. MartinezD · 68'

6.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes28%

Tackles—

Duels25%

26

26MuriloD · 90'

7.3

More stats

Shots0/2 on target

Passes59%

Tackles2

Duels87%

2Alexander BarbozaD · 90'

7.2

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes39%

Tackles2

Duels53%

40

40Allan EliasM · 80'

7.3

More stats

Shots3/3 on target

Passes23%

Tackles2

Duels50%

8Andreas PereiraM · 73'

🟥6.3

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes23%

Tackles—

Duels25%

17Marlon FreitasM · 90'

🅰️ 17.0

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes44%

Tackles—

Duels50%

22Joaquín Piquerez (C)D · 90'

6.9

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes28%

Tackles5

Duels47%

11Jhon AriasM · 80'

7.2

More stats

Shots0/2 on target

Passes13%

Tackles1

Duels75%

9

9Vitor RoqueF · 80'

6.3

More stats

Shots2/3 on target

Passes8%

Tackles—

Duels40%

42

42J. LopezF · 87'

⚽ 18.2

More stats

Shots2/3 on target

Passes18%

Tackles4

Duels56%

Bench (13)

18

18MauricioM

—

19Ramón SosaF · 10'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes4%

Tackles—

Duels100%

14

14Marcelo LombaG

—

43Luis BenedettiD

—

4

4A. GiayD

—

56

56Arthur GabrielD · 22'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes5%

Tackles—

Duels67%

30Lucas EvangelistaM · 10'

6.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes3%

Tackles1

Duels100%

7

7Felipe AndersonM · 10'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes2%

Tackles—

Duels50%

50

50Luis PachecoM

—

48

48LarsonM

—

37

37Riquelme FillipiF

—

15

15G. GómezD · 11'

6.3

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes1%

Tackles—

Duels100%

37

37Riquelme Fillipi—

—

Cerro Porteno

19

19P. VegettiF · 90'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes11%

Tackles—

Duels38%

2

2F. DominguezD · 89'

🟨6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes15%

Tackles4

Duels47%

32Cesar BobadillaM · 90'

🟨6.5

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes16%

Tackles1

Duels27%

18

18A. GamarraM · 62'

6.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes19%

Tackles1

Duels50%

5

5J. MorelM · 90'

🟨6.5

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes17%

Tackles2

Duels31%

1

1M. RoffoG · 90'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes12%

Tackles—

Duels—

23

23V. Velázquez (C)D · 90'

7.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes22%

Tackles1

Duels83%

24

24A. D. Canete TorresD · 90'

🟨6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes14%

Tackles1

Duels38%

10

10C. DomínguezF · 53'

6.3

More stats

Shots0/2 on target

Passes2%

Tackles—

Duels27%

14L. A. Quintana RodriguezD · 90'

7.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes17%

Tackles5

Duels67%

35

35M. ChaparroD · 62'

🟨6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes5%

Tackles2

Duels50%

Bench (13)

11

11J. IturbeF

—

40Mateo KlimowiczM · 28'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes7%

Tackles—

Duels0%

31Ignacio AlisedaM · 9'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes2%

Tackles—

Duels0%

27

27J. TorresF · 37'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes5%

Tackles—

Duels33%

13

13Guillermo BenítezD · 28'

6.5

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes4%

Tackles1

Duels50%

16

16I. RamirezD

—

25

25R. Fernandez—

—

36

36Fredy NogueraF

—

46

46Carlos ChenaM

—

28

28Carlos FrancoF

—

39

39L. J. ServinD

—

25

25R. FernándezG

—

44Lucas MerollaD

—

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM0d 0h 0m 0s

Independiente del Valle

Prediction:Independiente del Valle

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?+

Our AI model favors Palmeiras to win, with a 70% probability (Draw 21%, Cerro Porteno 9%).

What time does Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 12, 2026, 10:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).