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Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama

Serie A· Regular Season - 24
Palmeiras
4–1Full-time
Vasco DA Gama
DDLWGoals 12-91st in league
DDLWGoals 7-1519th in league
Home8W 3D 1L(21-9)
Away0W 5D 6L(11-21)
Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 9'Marlon Freitas
  2. 44'A. Gomez
  3. 46'Alexander Barboza (Murilo)
  4. 47'J. Lopez (Allan Elias)
  5. 50'Vitor Roque
  6. 50'Andreas Pereira
  7. 52'Thiago Mendes
  8. 56'Mauricio (Andreas Pereira)
  9. 59'Cuiabano (Riquelme Avellar)
  10. 59'Thiago Mendes (Ramon Rique)
  11. 66'David (F. Colidio)
  12. 66'Adson (N. Moreira)
  13. 71'Allan Elias (Felipe Anderson)
  14. 71'Allan Elias (J. Arias)
  15. 72'Vitor Roque (J. Arias)
  16. 72'Marlon Freitas (E. Martinez)
  17. 72'Vitor Roque (Felipe Anderson)
  18. 73'A. Gomez (M. Hinestroza)
  19. 83'Robert Renan
  20. 84'A. Giay (Khellven)
  21. 89'J. Lopez (J. Arias)
  22. 90+4'F. Colidio

Lineups

Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
3-4-2-14-3-3
1. Carlos Miguel
← 46'
2. Alexander Barboza
4
← 84'
4. A. Giay
15
15. G. Gómez
56
56. Arthur Gabriel
← 72'
17. Marlon Freitas
8. Andreas Pereira
40
← 71'
40. Allan Elias
42
42. J. Lopez
18
18. Mauricio
9
← 72'
9. Vitor Roque
11
← 73'
11. A. Gomez
← 66'
7. David
28
← 66'
28. Adson
3. Tchê Tchê
23
← 59'
23. Thiago Mendes
5
5. Santiago Sosa
66
← 59'
66. Cuiabano
30
30. Robert Renan
46
46. C. Cuesta
96
96. Paulo Henrique
1
1. Leonardo
Abel FerreiraCoachPedro Emanuel
Bench (12)
Bench (12)
PalmeirasVasco DA Gama
1.2
Goals/game
0.7
0.9
Conceded/game
1.5

AI match analysis

Palmeiras win
58.61%
Draw
24.12%
Vasco DA Gama win
17.27%
40.8%BTTS
36.4%Over 2.5
44.9%Palmeiras clean sheet
25.9%Vasco DA Gama clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-0

Data suggests Palmeiras is heavily favored going into this match, particularly given their position at the top of the league and solid home record. Conversely, Vasco DA Gama is struggling significantly, having won no away matches this season and recently recording a poor streak of form. The head-to-head history also favors Palmeiras, who have consistently come out on top in their last five encounters.

  • Palmeiras ranked 1st with 48 points from 23 matches
  • Vasco DA Gama ranked 19th with only 22 points from 22 matches
  • Palmeiras has a strong home record of 7 wins this season
  • Vasco DA Gama has yet to win an away match, with 5 losses and 5 draws
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
95/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Palmeiras

  • Higher league positionPalmeiras

    Palmeiras sit 18 places above Vasco DA Gama in the table.

    #1 vs #19
  • Strong home recordPalmeiras

    Palmeiras have won 8 of their last 12 home matches.

    8/12 home wins
  • Weak away recordVasco DA Gama

    Vasco DA Gama have won 0 of their last 11 away matches.

    0/11 away wins
  • Historical edgePalmeiras

    Palmeiras have won 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    5/8 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Palmeiras at 58.61% — final result was Palmeiras win, Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama.

Predicted score was 2-0.

This was a high confidence pick (95/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Palmeiras ✓1.62market 61.8% · model 58.61%
Draw3.84market 26.1% · model 24.12%
Vasco DA Gama5.41market 18.5% · model 17.27%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Palmeiras have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Vasco DA Gama have averaged 0.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

5Palmeiras wins
3Draws
0Vasco DA Gama wins
12-5Goals
Palmeiras
3–0Oct 1, 2025, 10:00 PM
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
0–1May 4, 2025, 7:00 PM
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
1–0Aug 27, 2023, 9:30 PM
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
2–2Apr 23, 2023, 7:00 PM
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
1–1Jan 26, 2021, 11:00 PM
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
0–1Nov 8, 2020, 7:00 PM
Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
1–2Nov 7, 2019, 12:30 AM
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
1–1Jul 27, 2019, 8:00 PM
Vasco DA Gama

Odds comparison

Match winner

Palmeiras1.62▲best 1.67
Draw3.84▼best 4.02
Vasco DA Gama5.41▼best 5.75

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.95▲best 2.00
Under 2.51.83▼best 1.88

Both teams to score

Yes1.91▲best 1.97
No1.80▼best 1.85

Double chance

Palmeiras/Draw1.14best 1.18
Palmeiras/Vasco DA Gama1.24▲best 1.26
Draw/Vasco DA Gama2.24▼best 2.32

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes5.00▼best 5.00
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.15▲best 1.17
Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.20▼best 2.20
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.61▲best 1.62

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Palmeiras1.62▼ 0.01
Draw3.84▲ 0.11
Vasco DA Gama5.41▲ 0.41
20 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Palmeiras win+0.5pp
AI
58.61%
Market
58.1%
Draw-0.4pp
AI
24.12%
Market
24.5%
Vasco DA Gama win-0.1pp
AI
17.27%
Market
17.4%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1
Palmeiras
241563+2451LDWL
19
Vasco DA Gama
235711-1422LDDL

Pre-match comparison

1.2Goals scored per game0.7
0.9Goals conceded per game1.5

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

Referee

B. Machado

5Yellow cards / game
0Red cards / game
1Penalties scored / game

Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).

When do they score?

Palmeiras

0-15'
25%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
25%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
50%

Vasco DA Gama

0-15'
0%
16-30'
40%
31-45'
20%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
20%
76-90+'
20%

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?+

Our AI model favors Palmeiras to win, with a 58.61% probability (Draw 24.12%, Vasco DA Gama 17.27%).

What time does Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 23, 2026, 7:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).