Phoenix Mercury W vs Atlanta Dream W
Mortgage Matchup Center
Value found
+24.2% edgePhoenix Mercury W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 170 total points vs the market's 177 line — leans under by 7 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Phoenix Mercury W | 18 | 17 | 33 | 21 | 89 |
 Atlanta Dream W | 29 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 99 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 81-89
Data suggests that Atlanta Dream W is in better form, averaging 92.3 points scored in their last 10 games compared to Phoenix Mercury W's 84.5 points. Given their head-to-head success and Phoenix's defensive struggles, the numbers favor an Atlanta victory, leading to a predicted score of 89 to 81.
- Atlanta Dream W has a 65% away win rate this season, suggesting strong performance on the road.
- In their last 10 games, Phoenix Mercury W has allowed an average of 86.4 points, which could be a significant concern defensively.
- Historically, Atlanta Dream W has won 4 of the last 5 matchups against Phoenix Mercury W, showcasing their recent dominance.
Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Atlanta Dream W
- Sharper attackAtlanta Dream W
Atlanta Dream W are averaging 92.8 points scored per game over their recent matches.
92.8/game - Tighter defenseAtlanta Dream W
Atlanta Dream W are conceding just 85.4 points per game over their recent matches.
85.4/game conceded - Poor recent formPhoenix Mercury W
Phoenix Mercury W have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L - Good recent formAtlanta Dream W
Atlanta Dream W have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Atlanta Dream W at 63% — final result was Atlanta Dream W win, Phoenix Mercury W 89-99 Atlanta Dream W.
Predicted score was 81-89.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (66/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Phoenix Mercury W have averaged 84.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Atlanta Dream W have averaged 92.8 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Phoenix Mercury W are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Atlanta Dream W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Phoenix Mercury W | Atlanta Dream W |
|---|---|---|
| +5.5 | 2.08▲ | 1.72▼ |
| +6 | 2.00▲ | 1.80▼ |
| +6.5 | 1.97▲ | 1.80▼ |
| +7 | 2.00▲ | 1.80▼ |
| +7.5 | 1.90▲ | 1.88▼ |
| +8 | 1.85▲ | 1.94▼ |
| +8.5 | 1.77▲ | 2.00▼ |
| +9 | 1.72▲ | 2.08▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 175 | 1.75▼ | 2.02▲ |
| 175.5 | 1.77▼ | 1.99▲ |
| 176 | 1.82▼ | 1.93▲ |
| 176.5 | 1.84▼ | 1.91▲ |
| 177 | 1.88▼ | 1.87▲ |
| 177.5 | 1.92▼ | 1.84▲ |
| 178 | 1.95▼ | 1.80▲ |
| 178.5 | 1.98▼ | 1.77▲ |
Double chance
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Box score
Phoenix Mercury W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Copper | 37:04 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 10/14 | 3/7 | 9/12 |
| D. Bonner | 30:07 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 4/7 | 0/2 | 4/4 |
| A. Thomas | 33:04 | 11 | 16 | 10 | 4/10 | 0/0 | 3/5 |
| Brochant Noemie | 27:22 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0/3 | 3/5 | 0/0 |
| Whitcomb Sami | 27:32 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0/1 | 2/5 | 0/0 |
Bench (3)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Held | 12:28 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0/2 | 2/3 | 2/2 |
| Vukosavljevic Valeriane | 13:18 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 2/2 |
| N. Mack | 19:05 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
Atlanta Dream W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Reese | 35:05 | 31 | 14 | 2 | 14/17 | 0/4 | 3/5 |
| R. Howard | 37:41 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 3/3 | 4/11 | 2/2 |
| A. Gray | 38:10 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 4/5 | 2/8 | 3/3 |
| J. Canada | 29:10 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 1/3 | 2/7 | 4/4 |
| N. Hillmon-Baker | 34:43 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1/1 | 2/6 | 0/0 |
Bench (3)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Borlase | 13:00 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 2/4 | 0/1 | 0/0 |
| M. Okot | 10:12 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 2/2 |
| T. Paopao | 01:59 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 |
Match statistics
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 2 |  Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 3 |  New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 4 |  Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 5 |  Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 6 |  Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 7 |  Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 |  Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 5 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 6 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 7 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 8 |  Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 9 |  Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 10 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 12 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 15 |  Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 5 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 8 | Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
New York Liberty WChicago Sky WPhoenix Mercury WToronto Tempo WAtlanta Dream WMinnesota Lynx WSeattle Storm WLos Angeles Sparks WFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Phoenix Mercury W vs Atlanta Dream W?+
Our AI model favors Atlanta Dream W to win, with a 63% probability (Phoenix Mercury W 37%).
What time does Phoenix Mercury W vs Atlanta Dream W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 23, 2026, 2:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Phoenix Mercury W vs Atlanta Dream W?+
Phoenix Mercury W: 18-17-33-21. Atlanta Dream W: 29-21-23-26. Final: 89-99.