Phoenix Mercury W vs Portland Fire W — NBA W

NBA W

Phoenix Mercury W

85–88Full-time

Portland Fire W

WLLLLLPts 849-89612th in Overall Standings · 13-24

LLLWPts 611-6189th in Overall Standings · 15-22

Home9W 11L(1640-1611)

Away3W 2L(430-428)

Mortgage Matchup Center

Value found

+12.1% edge

Portland Fire W win

2.38AI fair odds

2.67Bookmaker odds

+12.1%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Total points edge

AI expects 160 total points vs the market's 178.5 line — leans under by 18.5 points.

Today

Tip-off

In Progress

Final

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Phoenix Mercury W	22	20	22	21	85
Portland Fire W	18	18	25	27	88

AI match analysis

Phoenix Mercury W win

58%

Portland Fire W win

42%

Predicted score: 84-76

The analysis indicates a competitive matchup as Phoenix Mercury has a strong 60% home win rate and is averaging nearly 84 points per game recently. Conversely, Portland Fire has shown impressive form with a perfect away win rate this season, although their scoring average has been slightly lower. The numbers suggest a balanced game, favoring a slight edge for the Mercury given their home advantage and scoring proficiency.

Phoenix Mercury has a 60% home win rate this season
Portland Fire has won all their away games this season
Phoenix scored an average of 83.9 points in their last 10 games
Portland's recent games highlight a potent 57% shooting accuracy from the field.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

55/100

Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and this game has limited historical data available so far.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Phoenix Mercury W

Sharper attackPhoenix Mercury W
Phoenix Mercury W are averaging 84.9 points scored per game over their recent matches.
84.9/game
Tighter defensePortland Fire W
Portland Fire W are conceding just 88.3 points per game over their recent matches.
88.3/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Phoenix Mercury W at 58% — final result was Portland Fire W win, Phoenix Mercury W 85-88 Portland Fire W.

Predicted score was 84-76.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (55/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Phoenix Mercury W1.47market 68% · model 58%

Portland Fire W ✓2.67market 37.5% · model 42%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Phoenix Mercury W have averaged 84.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Portland Fire W have averaged 87.3 points scored per game over their last 7 matches.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Phoenix Mercury W1.47best 1.50AI 58%

Portland Fire W2.67best 2.80AI 42%

Point spread

Line	Phoenix Mercury W	Portland Fire W
-7	2.13▼	1.66
-6.5	2.05▼	1.71
-6	2.01▲	1.77
-5.5	1.94▲	1.83▼
-5	1.87	1.89▼
-4.5	1.82▲	1.94▼
-4	1.73▼	2.02▼
-3.5	1.69▼	2.07

Total points

Line	Over	Under
176	1.75▼	2.01▲
176.5	1.75▼	2.02▲
177	1.77▼	1.98▲
177.5	1.79▼	1.95▲
178	1.86▼	1.90▲
178.5	1.88▼	1.88▲
179	1.96▲	1.80▲
179.5	1.95▼	1.79▲

Double chance

Draw/Away2.35▼

Home/Draw1.37▲

Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Phoenix Mercury W1.47▲ 0.05

Portland Fire W2.67▼ 0.18

15 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Phoenix Mercury W win-6.5pp

58%

Market

64.5%

Portland Fire W win+6.5pp

42%

Market

35.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Box score

Phoenix Mercury W

Player	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	FG	3PT	FT
D. Bonner	32:44	23	6	0	3/6	4/10	5/5
K. Copper	36:05	19	7	1	4/10	2/4	5/6
A. Thomas	33:51	17	11	9	6/10	1/1	2/2
Whitcomb Sami	25:31	11	2	4	2/2	1/8	4/4
Brochant Noemie	27:12	0	2	2	0/4	0/1	0/0

Bench (4)

Player	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	FG	3PT	FT
N. Mack	18:08	7	4	1	3/5	0/0	1/2
Vukosavljevic Valeriane	09:24	4	1	0	1/2	0/2	2/4
A. Held	14:29	3	1	1	0/1	1/1	0/0
M. Suarez Rodriguez	02:36	1	2	0	0/0	0/0	1/2

Portland Fire W

Player	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	FG	3PT	FT
Leite Carla	27:38	23	1	5	8/13	1/2	4/8
Gustafson Megan	27:10	15	5	1	3/4	3/7	0/0
E. Engstler	22:03	9	7	4	3/3	1/4	0/1
Carleton Bridget	31:39	9	5	0	3/7	0/8	3/3
N. Puoch	16:36	3	4	1	0/1	1/2	0/0

Bench (5)

Player	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	FG	3PT	FT
F. Buhner	17:57	9	4	0	0/1	3/5	0/0
Samuelson Karlie	16:46	8	4	0	1/1	1/5	3/5
J. Harrison	12:22	6	1	3	3/3	0/3	0/0
S. Williams	12:50	4	3	0	0/0	0/0	4/4
Winterburn Holly	14:59	2	2	1	1/1	0/1	0/0

Match statistics

48%Field goal %65%

33%3-point %27%

80%Free throw %67%

36Rebounds36

18Assists15

5Steals6

1Blocks4

13Turnovers11

—Personal fouls—

Players to watch

Phoenix Mercury W's leading scorerK. Copper25 ppg · 4 reb · 1 ast Portland Fire W's leading scorerLeite Carla18.3 ppg · 1.8 reb · 6 ast

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

League standings

#	Team	P	W	L	Diff	Win%	Form
1	Atlanta Dream W	37	24	13	+207	65	—
2	Indiana Fever W	39	25	14	+222	64	—
3	New York Liberty W	38	23	15	+119	61	—
4	Washington Mystics W	37	22	15	-19	60	—
5	Chicago Sky W	38	15	23	-95	40	—
6	Toronto Tempo W	37	11	26	-237	30	—
7	Connecticut Sun W	36	9	27	-288	25	—
1	Minnesota Lynx W	38	31	7	+337	82	—
2	Golden State Valkyries W	36	25	11	+212	69	—
3	Las Vegas Aces W	39	26	13	+143	67	—
4	Atlanta Dream W	37	24	13	+207	65	—
5	Indiana Fever W	39	25	14	+222	64	—
6	New York Liberty W	38	23	15	+119	61	—
7	Washington Mystics W	37	22	15	-19	60	—
8	Dallas Wings W	38	22	16	+102	58	—
9	Portland Fire W	37	15	22	-162	41	—
10	Chicago Sky W	38	15	23	-95	40	—
11	Los Angeles Sparks W	37	13	24	-193	35	—
12	Phoenix Mercury W	37	13	24	-138	35	—
13	Toronto Tempo W	37	11	26	-237	30	—
14	Connecticut Sun W	36	9	27	-288	25	—
15	Seattle Storm W	38	7	31	-210	18	—
1	Minnesota Lynx W	38	31	7	+337	82	—
2	Golden State Valkyries W	36	25	11	+212	69	—
3	Las Vegas Aces W	39	26	13	+143	67	—
4	Dallas Wings W	38	22	16	+102	58	—
5	Portland Fire W	37	15	22	-162	41	—
6	Los Angeles Sparks W	37	13	24	-193	35	—
7	Phoenix Mercury W	37	13	24	-138	35	—
8	Seattle Storm W	38	7	31	-210	18	—