Portland Fire W vs Washington Mystics W — NBA W

NBA W

Portland Fire W

100–105Full-time

Washington Mystics W

LLLWPts 611-6189th in Overall Standings · 15-22

LLWWWWPts 842-8294th in Eastern Conference · 22-15

Home0W 2L(181-190)

Away7W 13L(1546-1677)

Moda Center

Total points edge

AI expects 168 total points vs the market's 166.5 line — leans over by 1.5 points.

Today

Tip-off

In Progress

Final

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Portland Fire W	23	26	21	30	100
Washington Mystics W	18	29	18	40	105

AI match analysis

Portland Fire W win

39%

Washington Mystics W win

61%

Predicted score: 82-86

Data suggests that the Portland Fire W is struggling at home with a win rate of 0% this season, while the Washington Mystics W, despite a low away win rate of 25%, have shown slightly better form. Historically, Portland's recent performance averages 83 points scored, aligning closely with Washington's own conceding of 83.9 points per game in their recent matchups. The numbers favor Washington, giving them an edge in this matchup.

Portland Fire W has yet to win at home this season.
Washington Mystics W has a 25% away win rate this season, but has recently won 3 of their last 10 games.
In their last games, Portland averages 83 points scored but allows 83.5, indicating a potential high-scoring matchup.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

65/100

Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and this game has limited historical data available so far.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Washington Mystics W

Sharper attackPortland Fire W
Portland Fire W are averaging 87.3 points scored per game over their recent matches.
87.3/game
Poor recent formPortland Fire W
Portland Fire W have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Good recent formWashington Mystics W
Washington Mystics W have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L
Tighter defensePortland Fire W
Portland Fire W are conceding just 88.3 points per game over their recent matches.
88.3/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Washington Mystics W at 61% — final result was Washington Mystics W win, Portland Fire W 100-105 Washington Mystics W.

Predicted score was 82-86.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (65/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Washington Mystics W ✓1.56market 64% · model 61%

Portland Fire W2.42market 41.4% · model 39%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Portland Fire W have averaged 87.3 points scored per game over their last 7 matches.
Washington Mystics W have averaged 84.2 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Portland Fire W2.42▼best 2.55AI 39%

Washington Mystics W1.56▲best 1.60AI 61%

Point spread

Line	Portland Fire W	Washington Mystics W
+2	2.10▼	1.68▲
+2.5	2.03▼	1.74▲
+3	2.01▼	1.78▲
+3.5	1.93▼	1.84▲
+4	1.88▼	1.92▲
+4.5	1.80▼	1.97▲
+5	1.72▼	2.06▲
+5.5	1.70▼	2.08▲

Total points

Line	Over	Under
164	1.74▼	2.02▲
165	1.76▼	2.01▲
165.5	1.80▼	1.95▲
166	1.88▼	1.90▲
166.5	1.88▼	1.87▲
167	1.95▼	1.82▲
167.5	1.97▼	1.77▲
168	2.02▼	1.74▲

Double chance

Draw/Away1.46▲

Home/Draw2.13▼

Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Portland Fire W2.42▲ 0.03

Washington Mystics W1.56▼ 0.02

22 Aug – 23 Aug

Model vs market

Portland Fire W win-0.3pp

39%

Market

39.3%

Washington Mystics W win+0.3pp

61%

Market

60.7%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Match statistics

50%Field goal %55%

46%3-point %50%

100%Free throw %73%

25Rebounds38

21Assists22

9Steals6

2Blocks6

13Turnovers17

—Personal fouls—

Players to watch

Portland Fire W's leading scorerLeite Carla15.7 ppg · 1.3 reb · 6 ast Washington Mystics W's leading scorerS. Austin22.7 ppg · 8.7 reb · 2 ast

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

League standings

#	Team	P	W	L	Diff	Win%	Form
1	Atlanta Dream W	37	24	13	+207	65	—
2	Indiana Fever W	39	25	14	+222	64	—
3	New York Liberty W	38	23	15	+119	61	—
4	Washington Mystics W	37	22	15	-19	60	—
5	Chicago Sky W	38	15	23	-95	40	—
6	Toronto Tempo W	37	11	26	-237	30	—
7	Connecticut Sun W	36	9	27	-288	25	—
1	Minnesota Lynx W	38	31	7	+337	82	—
2	Golden State Valkyries W	36	25	11	+212	69	—
3	Las Vegas Aces W	39	26	13	+143	67	—
4	Atlanta Dream W	37	24	13	+207	65	—
5	Indiana Fever W	39	25	14	+222	64	—
6	New York Liberty W	38	23	15	+119	61	—
7	Washington Mystics W	37	22	15	-19	60	—
8	Dallas Wings W	38	22	16	+102	58	—
9	Portland Fire W	37	15	22	-162	41	—
10	Chicago Sky W	38	15	23	-95	40	—
11	Los Angeles Sparks W	37	13	24	-193	35	—
12	Phoenix Mercury W	37	13	24	-138	35	—
13	Toronto Tempo W	37	11	26	-237	30	—
14	Connecticut Sun W	36	9	27	-288	25	—
15	Seattle Storm W	38	7	31	-210	18	—
1	Minnesota Lynx W	38	31	7	+337	82	—
2	Golden State Valkyries W	36	25	11	+212	69	—
3	Las Vegas Aces W	39	26	13	+143	67	—
4	Dallas Wings W	38	22	16	+102	58	—
5	Portland Fire W	37	15	22	-162	41	—
6	Los Angeles Sparks W	37	13	24	-193	35	—
7	Phoenix Mercury W	37	13	24	-138	35	—
8	Seattle Storm W	38	7	31	-210	18	—