Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder
Value found
+59.4% edgeRoman Dolidze win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
AI fight analysis
The data suggests a competitive matchup between Reinier de Ridder and Roman Dolidze. With de Ridder's strong submission game and Dolidze's striking power and recent success, the fight could favor Dolidze, especially considering his more successful recent fight history. However, de Ridder's capability to finish fights on the ground may also play a crucial role in this matchup.
- Reinier de Ridder has a higher submission percentage with 13 of his 21 wins coming by submission.
- Roman Dolidze has finished 8 of his 15 wins by knockout, showcasing striking power.
- Dolidze has recent momentum, winning 5 of his last 7 fights, including victories over notable opponents like Kevin Holland and Anthony Smith.
Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two fighters is moderate, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and both fighters' career records and recent fight history are available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Reinier de Ridder
- Reach advantageReinier de Ridder
Reinier de Ridder has a 5cm reach advantage over their opponent, a real edge in striking exchanges at range.
198cm reach - More experiencedReinier de Ridder
Reinier de Ridder has fought 25 professional fights, 6 more than their opponent tonight.
25 pro fights - Superior career recordReinier de Ridder
Reinier de Ridder carries a 21-4 professional record, a 84% win rate.
21-4 - High finishing rateReinier de Ridder
Reinier de Ridder has finished 18 of 21 career wins by knockout or submission, a 86% finish rate.
86% finish rate
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Average price across 7 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
More UFC predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder?+
Our AI model favors Reinier de Ridder to win, with a 59% probability (Roman Dolidze 41%).
What time does Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder start?+
This fight took place on Aug 23, 2026, 1:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What are the career records of Roman Dolidze and Reinier de Ridder?+
Roman Dolidze is 15-4-0 (W-L-D). Reinier de Ridder is 21-4-0 (W-L-D).

