Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder

UFC· UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues· Light Heavyweight· Main Event
LWWL
15-4-0 (W-L-D)8 KO, 3 SUB
Ht 188cmWt 84kgReach 193cmStance Orthodox
Xtreme Couture
WW
RDR21-4-0 (W-L-D)5 KO, 13 SUB
Ht 193cmWt 84kgReach 198cmStance Southpaw
Combat Brothers

Value found

+59.4% edge

Roman Dolidze win

2.44AI fair odds
3.89Bookmaker odds
+59.4%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Fight time
In Progress
Result

AI fight analysis

Roman Dolidze win
41%
Reinier de Ridder win
59%

The data suggests a competitive matchup between Reinier de Ridder and Roman Dolidze. With de Ridder's strong submission game and Dolidze's striking power and recent success, the fight could favor Dolidze, especially considering his more successful recent fight history. However, de Ridder's capability to finish fights on the ground may also play a crucial role in this matchup.

  • Reinier de Ridder has a higher submission percentage with 13 of his 21 wins coming by submission.
  • Roman Dolidze has finished 8 of his 15 wins by knockout, showcasing striking power.
  • Dolidze has recent momentum, winning 5 of his last 7 fights, including victories over notable opponents like Kevin Holland and Anthony Smith.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
67/100

Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two fighters is moderate, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and both fighters' career records and recent fight history are available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Reinier de Ridder

  • Reach advantageReinier de Ridder

    Reinier de Ridder has a 5cm reach advantage over their opponent, a real edge in striking exchanges at range.

    198cm reach
  • More experiencedReinier de Ridder

    Reinier de Ridder has fought 25 professional fights, 6 more than their opponent tonight.

    25 pro fights
  • Superior career recordReinier de Ridder

    Reinier de Ridder carries a 21-4 professional record, a 84% win rate.

    21-4
  • High finishing rateReinier de Ridder

    Reinier de Ridder has finished 18 of 21 career wins by knockout or submission, a 86% finish rate.

    86% finish rate

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Roman Dolidze3.89best 4.21AI 41%
Reinier de Ridder1.25best 1.28AI 59%

Average price across 7 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Roman Dolidze3.89 2.59
Reinier de Ridder1.25 2.26
13 Aug22 Aug

Model vs market

Roman Dolidze win+16.6pp
AI
41%
Market
24.4%
Reinier de Ridder win-16.6pp
AI
59%
Market
75.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

More UFC predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder?+

Our AI model favors Reinier de Ridder to win, with a 59% probability (Roman Dolidze 41%).

What time does Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder start?+

This fight took place on Aug 23, 2026, 1:30 AM (your local time, based on your device).

What are the career records of Roman Dolidze and Reinier de Ridder?+

Roman Dolidze is 15-4-0 (W-L-D). Reinier de Ridder is 21-4-0 (W-L-D).