Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners

MLB
LWLWRuns 45-465th in AL East Division · 65-69
WWLLRuns 38-793rd in AL West Division · 64-70
Home12W 8L(89-78)
Away11W 9L(87-107)
Kicks off in

Value found

+3.8% edge

Toronto Blue Jays win

1.72AI fair odds
1.79Bookmaker odds
+3.8%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
First pitch
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Final

AI match analysis

Preliminary — updates once lineups are confirmed

Toronto Blue Jays win
58%
Seattle Mariners win
42%

Predicted score: 5-4

Data suggests that the Toronto Blue Jays have a favorable historical advantage over the Seattle Mariners, winning 8 of their last 10 encounters. The Mariners' recent struggles in allowing runs, with an average of 7.9 against in their last 10 games, further support the perception that the Blue Jays could perform well at home. Consequently, the analysis estimates that the Blue Jays are likely to score around 5 runs, while the Mariners may tally 4 runs.

  • Toronto Blue Jays have won 8 of their last 10 games against the Seattle Mariners.
  • Seattle Mariners have allowed an average of 7.9 runs in their last 10 games.
  • Toronto Blue Jays hold a 60% home win rate this season.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
76/100

Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly. Shown in English — a localized version is being prepared.

Why AI favors Toronto Blue Jays

  • Tighter defenseToronto Blue Jays

    Toronto Blue Jays are conceding just 4.6 runs per game over their recent matches.

    4.6/game conceded
  • Historical edgeToronto Blue Jays

    Toronto Blue Jays have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    4/5 H2H wins
  • Sharper attackToronto Blue Jays

    Toronto Blue Jays are averaging 4.5 runs scored per game over their recent matches.

    4.5/game
  • Strong home recordToronto Blue Jays

    Toronto Blue Jays have won 12 of their last 20 home matches.

    12/20 home wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

Match trends

  • Toronto Blue Jays have averaged 4.5 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Seattle Mariners have averaged 3.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Toronto Blue Jays are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 meetings with Seattle Mariners.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Toronto Blue Jays1.79best 1.85AI 58%
Seattle Mariners2.04best 2.09AI 42%

Point spread

LineToronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners
-2.53.421.29
-23.081.35
-1.52.621.48
-12.171.66
+11.572.37
+1.51.462.65
+21.343.14
+2.51.283.51

Total points

LineOverUnder
61.402.81
6.51.532.42
71.662.14
7.51.901.92
82.051.73
8.52.221.64
92.601.46
9.52.831.40

Average price across 10 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Model vs market

Toronto Blue Jays win+4.8pp
AI
58%
Market
53.2%
Seattle Mariners win-4.8pp
AI
42%
Market
46.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

4Toronto Blue Jays wins
1Seattle Mariners wins
28-14Runs

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Chicago White Sox
1337063+4453
2
Cleveland Guardians
1346866-451
3
Minnesota Twins
1346470-5648
4
Detroit Tigers
1336271+7047
5
Kansas City Royals
1345975-9244
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1337954+4759
2
New York Yankees
1327557+10457
3
Boston Red Sox
1337360+10155
4
Baltimore Orioles
1336568-2249
5
Toronto Blue Jays
1346569-5449
1
Houston Astros
1336667-4850
2
Texas Rangers
1346668-4749
3
Seattle Mariners
1346470-5748
4
Athletics
1345381-18540
5
Los Angeles Angels
1345282-7539
1
Tampa Bay Rays
1337954+4759
2
New York Yankees
1327557+10457
3
Boston Red Sox
1337360+10155
4
Chicago White Sox
1337063+4453
5
Cleveland Guardians
1346866-451
6
Houston Astros
1336667-4850
7
Texas Rangers
1346668-4749
8
Baltimore Orioles
1336568-2249
9
Toronto Blue Jays
1346569-5449
10
Seattle Mariners
1346470-5748
11
Minnesota Twins
1346470-5648
12
Detroit Tigers
1336271+7047
13
Kansas City Royals
1345975-9244
14
Athletics
1345381-18540
15
Los Angeles Angels
1345282-7539
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1338251+16762
2
Chicago Cubs
1347658+11957
3
St.Louis Cardinals
1346668-1549
4
Pittsburgh Pirates
1356570+2448
5
Cincinnati Reds
1346371-10047
1
Atlanta Braves
1337855+11259
2
Philadelphia Phillies
1347460+2355
3
Miami Marlins
1346866+1951
4
Washington Nationals
1356273+646
5
New York Mets
1336073-4645
1
Los Angeles Dodgers
1338053+14960
2
San Diego Padres
1347262+1754
3
Arizona Diamondbacks
1347163+553
4
San Francisco Giants
1335479-7441
5
Colorado Rockies
1335281-13239
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1338251+16762
2
Los Angeles Dodgers
1338053+14960
3
Atlanta Braves
1337855+11259
4
Chicago Cubs
1347658+11957
5
Philadelphia Phillies
1347460+2355
6
San Diego Padres
1347262+1754
7
Arizona Diamondbacks
1347163+553
8
Miami Marlins
1346866+1951
9
St.Louis Cardinals
1346668-1549
10
Pittsburgh Pirates
1356570+2448
11
Cincinnati Reds
1346371-10047
12
Washington Nationals
1356273+646
13
New York Mets
1336073-4645
14
San Francisco Giants
1335479-7441
15
Colorado Rockies
1335281-13239

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners?+

Our AI model favors Toronto Blue Jays to win, with a 58% probability (Seattle Mariners 42%).

What time does Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners start?+

First pitch is at Aug 29, 2026, 7:07 PM (your local time, based on your device).