Yakult Swallows vs Hiroshima Carp
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yakult Swallows | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 12 | 18 | 0 |
 Hiroshima Carp | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-2
Data suggests that Yakult Swallows have a strong recent track record against Hiroshima Carp, winning 3 of their last 5 matchups. While Yakult has shown solid scoring ability with an average of 4.3 runs in their recent games, Hiroshima's struggles are evident as they average only 2 runs scored and 5.5 conceded in their last 10 matches. The analysis indicates a lean toward Yakult Swallows to secure a win.
- Yakult Swallows have won 3 of the last 5 encounters against Hiroshima Carp
- Hiroshima Carp average only 2 runs scored and 5.5 runs conceded in their last 10 matches
- Yakult Swallows have averaged 4.3 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches
Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Hiroshima Carp
- Poor recent formYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L - Good recent formHiroshima Carp
Hiroshima Carp have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Historical edgeYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
5/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 47% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Hiroshima Carp at 47% — final result was Yakult Swallows win, Yakult Swallows 12-0 Hiroshima Carp.
Predicted score was 4-2.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (58/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Yakult Swallows have averaged 2.7 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Hiroshima Carp have averaged 3.3 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yakult Swallows are unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 meetings with Hiroshima Carp.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Yakult Swallows | Hiroshima Carp |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.21 | 1.31 |
| -1 | 2.63 | 1.39 |
| -0.5 | 2.03 | 1.71 |
| +0.5 | 1.91 | 1.80 |
| +1 | 1.63▼ | 2.09▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.50▼ | 2.48▲ |
| +2 | 1.34▼ | 2.91▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.29▼ | 3.33▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 1.38▲ | 2.81▼ |
| 5 | 1.48▲ | 2.50▼ |
| 5.5 | 1.73▲ | 2.05▼ |
| 6 | 1.85▲ | 1.85▼ |
| 6.5 | 2.04▲ | 1.71▼ |
| 7 | 2.37▲ | 1.51▼ |
| 7.5 | 2.65▲ | 1.43▼ |
| 8 | 2.98 | 1.32 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 114 | 64 | 50 | +63 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 116 | 63 | 53 | +33 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 115 | 51 | 64 | +3 | 44 | — |
| 4 | Yakult Swallows | 114 | 50 | 64 | -81 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 118 | 51 | 67 | -4 | 43 | — |
| 6 | Hiroshima Carp | 111 | 46 | 65 | -72 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 115 | 71 | 44 | +179 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 118 | 66 | 52 | +33 | 56 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 118 | 64 | 54 | +62 | 54 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 117 | 56 | 61 | -69 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 112 | 52 | 60 | -69 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 114 | 45 | 69 | -78 | 40 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHanshin TigersYomiuri GiantsHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Yakult Swallows vs Hiroshima Carp?+
Our AI model favors Hiroshima Carp to win, with a 47% probability (Yakult Swallows 53%).
What time does Yakult Swallows vs Hiroshima Carp start?+
First pitch is at Aug 12, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Yakult Swallows vs Hiroshima Carp?+
Yakult Swallows: 2, 0, 0, 5, 4, 1, 0, 0. Hiroshima Carp: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 12-0.