Yakult Swallows vs Yokohama BayStars
Value found
+4.5% edgeYakult Swallows win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yakult Swallows | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
 Yokohama BayStars | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 5-4
The numbers suggest a closely matched contest, with Yakult Swallows having a slight edge based on their recent strong form and impressive home win rate of 61%. However, Yokohama BayStars have also performed competitively, evidenced by their solid away record of 60%. The head-to-head results favor Yakult, who have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against their rivals. A predicted score of 5-4 reflects the anticipated tight contest.
- Yakult Swallows won 7 of their last 10 games
- Yokohama BayStars lost 5 of their last 10 games
- Yakult Swallows have a home win rate of 61% this season
- Head-to-head history shows Yakult Swallows winning 7 of the last 10 encounters against Yokohama BayStars.
Confidence is moderate because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Yokohama BayStars
- Sharper attackYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows are averaging 3.4 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
3.4/game - Poor recent formYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Good recent formYokohama BayStars
Yokohama BayStars have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Tighter defenseYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows are conceding just 4.1 runs per game over their recent matches.
4.1/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 51% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Yokohama BayStars at 51% — final result was Yakult Swallows win, Yakult Swallows 4-3 Yokohama BayStars.
Predicted score was 5-4.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (64/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Yakult Swallows have averaged 3.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yokohama BayStars have averaged 3.2 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yakult Swallows are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Yokohama BayStars.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Yakult Swallows | Yokohama BayStars |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | 2.67 | 1.38 |
| -0.5 | 2.22▲ | 1.59▼ |
| +0.5 | 2.13▲ | 1.65▼ |
| +1 | 1.80 | 1.86 |
| +1.5 | 1.66 | 2.15▲ |
| +2 | 1.50▲ | 2.45▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.42 | 2.70 |
| +3 | 1.29 | 3.14 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 1.46▲ | 2.55▼ |
| 7 | 1.57▲ | 2.28▼ |
| 7.5 | 1.76▲ | 1.98▼ |
| 8 | 1.89▲ | 1.82▼ |
| 8.5 | 2.04▲ | 1.70▼ |
| 9 | 2.34▲ | 1.54▼ |
| 9.5 | 2.58▲ | 1.46▼ |
| 10 | 2.82 | 1.36 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 116 | 66 | 50 | +69 | 57 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 118 | 63 | 55 | +27 | 53 | — |
| 3 | Yokohama BayStars | 117 | 53 | 64 | +6 | 45 | — |
| 4 | Yakult Swallows | 116 | 52 | 64 | -71 | 45 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 120 | 51 | 69 | -7 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 113 | 46 | 67 | -82 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 117 | 72 | 45 | +180 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 120 | 68 | 52 | +38 | 57 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 120 | 66 | 54 | +66 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 119 | 57 | 62 | -70 | 48 | — |
| 5 |  Chiba Lotte Marines | 114 | 52 | 62 | -73 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 116 | 45 | 71 | -83 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Yakult SwallowsHanshin TigersRakuten Gold. EaglesOrix BuffaloesYomiuri GiantsYokohama BayStarsChiba Lotte MarinesSeibu LionsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Yakult Swallows vs Yokohama BayStars?+
Our AI model favors Yokohama BayStars to win, with a 51% probability (Yakult Swallows 49%).
What time does Yakult Swallows vs Yokohama BayStars start?+
First pitch is at Aug 15, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Yakult Swallows vs Yokohama BayStars?+
Yakult Swallows: 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1. Yokohama BayStars: 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 4-3.