Yakult Swallows vs Yokohama BayStars
Value found
+19.5% edgeYakult Swallows win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 2 | 7 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 5-4
The data suggests that the Yakult Swallows are currently in better form at home, recording a solid 63% win rate. They have also shown offensive strength, averaging over 5 runs scored in their last 10 games, while the Yokohama BayStars have struggled, especially on the road, where they have lost 4 of their last 5. Historically, Yakult has performed well against Yokohama, winning 4 of their last 5 encounters.
- Yakult Swallows have a 63% home win rate this season.
- Yakult has averaged 5.2 runs scored and 3.1 runs allowed in their last 10 games.
- Yokohama BayStars have lost 4 of their last 5 games played away.
- In their last 5 head-to-head meetings, Yakult has won 4 times against Yokohama.
Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Yakult Swallows
- Sharper attackYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows are averaging 3.4 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
3.4/game - Poor recent formYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L - Good recent formYokohama BayStars
Yokohama BayStars have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Tighter defenseYakult Swallows
Yakult Swallows are conceding just 4.1 runs per game over their recent matches.
4.1/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 56% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Yakult Swallows at 56% — final result was Yakult Swallows win, Yakult Swallows 2-1 Yokohama BayStars.
Predicted score was 5-4.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (67/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Yakult Swallows have averaged 3.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yokohama BayStars have averaged 3.2 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Yakult Swallows are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Yokohama BayStars.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Yakult Swallows | Yokohama BayStars |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | 2.63 | 1.39 |
| -0.5 | 2.20▲ | 1.60▼ |
| +0.5 | 2.11▲ | 1.65▼ |
| +1 | 1.81 | 1.85 |
| +1.5 | 1.67▲ | 2.13▼ |
| +2 | 1.51 | 2.39▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.42▼ | 2.68 |
| +3 | 1.32▲ | 3.01▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 1.40▼ | 2.78▲ |
| 7 | 1.46▼ | 2.51▲ |
| 7.5 | 1.64▼ | 2.15▲ |
| 8 | 1.74 | 1.98▲ |
| 8.5 | 1.90▼ | 1.84▲ |
| 9 | 2.11▼ | 1.65▲ |
| 9.5 | 2.34▼ | 1.54▲ |
| 10 | 2.61 | 1.40 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 117 | 67 | 50 | +71 | 57 | — | |
| 2 | 119 | 63 | 56 | +25 | 53 | — | |
| 3 | 118 | 54 | 64 | +7 | 46 | — | |
| 4 | 117 | 52 | 65 | -75 | 44 | — | |
| 5 | 114 | 47 | 67 | -78 | 41 | — | |
| 6 | 121 | 51 | 70 | -8 | 42 | — | |
| 1 | 118 | 73 | 45 | +183 | 62 | — | |
| 2 | 121 | 69 | 52 | +41 | 57 | — | |
| 3 | 121 | 67 | 54 | +67 | 55 | — | |
| 4 | 120 | 57 | 63 | -73 | 48 | — | |
| 5 | 115 | 52 | 63 | -74 | 45 | — | |
| 6 | 117 | 45 | 72 | -86 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Yakult Swallows vs Yokohama BayStars?+
Our AI model favors Yakult Swallows to win, with a 56% probability (Yokohama BayStars 44%).
What time does Yakult Swallows vs Yokohama BayStars start?+
First pitch is at Aug 16, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Yakult Swallows vs Yokohama BayStars?+
Yakult Swallows: 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Yokohama BayStars: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0. Final: 2-1.

