Yakult Swallows vs Yokohama BayStars

NPB
LWWLRuns 34-414th in Central Division · 52-65
WWWWRuns 32-323rd in Central Division · 54-64
Home11W 8L(84-69)
Away9W 11L(75-62)

Value found

+19.5% edge

Yakult Swallows win

1.79AI fair odds
2.13Bookmaker odds
+19.5%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
First pitch
In Progress
Final

Box score

Team123456789RHE
Yakult Swallows
00200000270
Yokohama BayStars
0000010001102

AI match analysis

Yakult Swallows win
56%
Yokohama BayStars win
44%

Predicted score: 5-4

The data suggests that the Yakult Swallows are currently in better form at home, recording a solid 63% win rate. They have also shown offensive strength, averaging over 5 runs scored in their last 10 games, while the Yokohama BayStars have struggled, especially on the road, where they have lost 4 of their last 5. Historically, Yakult has performed well against Yokohama, winning 4 of their last 5 encounters.

  • Yakult Swallows have a 63% home win rate this season.
  • Yakult has averaged 5.2 runs scored and 3.1 runs allowed in their last 10 games.
  • Yokohama BayStars have lost 4 of their last 5 games played away.
  • In their last 5 head-to-head meetings, Yakult has won 4 times against Yokohama.
AI ConfidenceModerate confidence
67/100

Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Yakult Swallows

  • Sharper attackYakult Swallows

    Yakult Swallows are averaging 3.4 runs scored per game over their recent matches.

    3.4/game
  • Poor recent formYakult Swallows

    Yakult Swallows have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

    2W 0D 3L
  • Good recent formYokohama BayStars

    Yokohama BayStars have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

    4W 0D 1L
  • Tighter defenseYakult Swallows

    Yakult Swallows are conceding just 4.1 runs per game over their recent matches.

    4.1/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • Close matchup

    The model gives the favorite only a 56% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Yakult Swallows at 56% — final result was Yakult Swallows win, Yakult Swallows 2-1 Yokohama BayStars.

Predicted score was 5-4.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (67/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Yokohama BayStars1.68market 59.6% · model 44%
Yakult Swallows2.13market 46.8% · model 56%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Yakult Swallows have averaged 3.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Yokohama BayStars have averaged 3.2 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Yakult Swallows are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Yokohama BayStars.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Yakult Swallows2.13best 2.23AI 56%
Yokohama BayStars1.68best 1.74AI 44%

Point spread

LineYakult SwallowsYokohama BayStars
-12.631.39
-0.52.201.60
+0.52.111.65
+11.811.85
+1.51.672.13
+21.512.39
+2.51.422.68
+31.323.01

Total points

LineOverUnder
6.51.402.78
71.462.51
7.51.642.15
81.741.98
8.51.901.84
92.111.65
9.52.341.54
102.611.40

Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Yakult Swallows2.13 0.03
Yokohama BayStars1.68 0.01
16 Aug16 Aug

Model vs market

Yakult Swallows win+12pp
AI
56%
Market
44%
Yokohama BayStars win-12pp
AI
44%
Market
56%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3Yakult Swallows wins
2Yokohama BayStars wins
24-24Runs

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Hanshin Tigers
1176750+7157
2
Yomiuri Giants
1196356+2553
3
Yokohama BayStars
1185464+746
4
Yakult Swallows
1175265-7544
5
Hiroshima Carp
1144767-7841
6
Chunichi Dragons
1215170-842
1
Fukuoka S. Hawks
1187345+18362
2
Seibu Lions
1216952+4157
3
Nippon Ham Fighters
1216754+6755
4
Orix Buffaloes
1205763-7348
5
Chiba Lotte Marines
1155263-7445
6
Rakuten Gold. Eagles
1174572-8639

More NPB predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Yakult Swallows vs Yokohama BayStars?+

Our AI model favors Yakult Swallows to win, with a 56% probability (Yokohama BayStars 44%).

What time does Yakult Swallows vs Yokohama BayStars start?+

First pitch is at Aug 16, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the inning-by-inning score in Yakult Swallows vs Yokohama BayStars?+

Yakult Swallows: 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Yokohama BayStars: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0. Final: 2-1.