Alverca vs Estrela
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo · Capacity 7,705 · grass · Referee: J. Bessa
Match events
- 14'D. Gui
- 17'Luan Patrick
- 35'Stefan Leković
- 43'G. Doue
- 44'V. Semedo
- 51'Leandro Antonetti (Rafa Soares)
- 58'Ian Luccas (Isaac James)
- 59'D. Gui (Rayan Lucas)
- 62'V. Semedo (Rayan Lucas)
- 64'Robinho (E. Pedro Vanga)
- 64'Jefferson Encada (M. Scholze)
- 64'I. Stoica (B. Souza)
- 69'A. Marcus
- 74'Chiquinho
- 74'Isaac James (Chissumba)
- 83'Ian Luccas (V. Moreira)
- 83'V. Semedo (S. J. Merheg)
- 83'B. Meupiyou (M. Essimi)
- 85'E. Pedro Vanga
- 88'Leandro Antonetti (S. van Hooijdonk)
- 90'Rafa Soares (Lucas Mincarelli Davin)
- 0.3
- Goals/game
- 0.5
- 1.8
- Conceded/game
- 1.6
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
The data suggests that both teams are struggling offensively, particularly Alverca, who has not scored in their last three matches. Estrela, while higher in the standings, has also faced challenges in their recent form, averaging only 0.5 goals in their last five games. The numbers favor a tight match, with a predicted score of 1-1 reflecting the difficulties both sides have had finding the back of the net.
- Alverca yet to score in their last 3 matches
- Estrela has an average of 0.5 goals scored in their last 5 matches
- Alverca has a goal difference of -2 from their last match against FC Porto
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Alverca
- Higher league positionEstrela
Estrela sit 6 places above Alverca in the table.
#10 vs #16 - Sharper attackEstrela
Estrela are averaging 0.5 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
0.5/game - Poor recent formAlverca
Alverca have lost 3 of their last 4 matches.
0W 1D 3L - Poor recent formEstrela
Estrela have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Limited recent-match sample
Alverca has fewer than 5 recent matches on record, so recent-form signals here are based on a small sample.
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 43% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
- No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Alverca at 43.42% — final result was a draw, Alverca 2-2 Estrela.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Alverca have averaged 0.3 goals scored per game over their last 4 matches.
- Estrela have averaged 0.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings on record.
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 4 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
J. Bessa
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Alverca
Estrela
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Casa PiaFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Alverca vs Estrela?+
Our AI model favors Alverca to win, with a 43.42% probability (Draw 30.55%, Estrela 26.03%).
Where is Alverca vs Estrela played?+
The match is played at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo (capacity 7,705).
What time does Alverca vs Estrela kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 2:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).