Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants
Value found
+17.2% edgeSan Francisco Giants win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
 San Francisco Giants | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 6-4
The data suggests a favorable position for the Boston Red Sox heading into this matchup, backed by their stronger recent performance and home advantage. Historically, they have won 6 out of the last 10 encounters against the Giants, which further supports their likelihood of success, despite the Giants' occasional wins. With the Red Sox averaging significantly more runs lately and the Giants struggling to score consistently, this game appears to lean towards a home victory.
- Boston Red Sox have a recent home win rate of 50%.
- Boston scored an average of 5.7 runs in their last 10 games, while San Francisco averaged 3.2 runs.
- San Francisco Giants have lost 8 of their last 10 games, demonstrating poor form.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Boston Red Sox
- Sharper attackBoston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox are averaging 5.4 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
5.4/game - Higher league positionBoston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox sit 1 place above San Francisco Giants in the table.
#3 vs #4 - Good recent formBoston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Good recent formSan Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 57% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Boston Red Sox at 57% — final result was Boston Red Sox win, Boston Red Sox 3-2 San Francisco Giants.
Predicted score was 6-4.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (70/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Boston Red Sox have averaged 5.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- San Francisco Giants have averaged 3.7 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Boston Red Sox are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with San Francisco Giants.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Boston Red Sox | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 3.32▲ | 1.31▼ |
| -3 | 2.96▲ | 1.38 |
| -2.5 | 2.53▲ | 1.49▼ |
| -2 | 2.28▼ | 1.61 |
| -1.5 | 2.02 | 1.81 |
| -1 | 1.64▼ | 2.23▲ |
| +1 | 1.30▼ | 3.38▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.26▼ | 3.64▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 1.44▲ | 2.69▼ |
| 7 | 1.55▲ | 2.43▼ |
| 7.5 | 1.75▲ | 2.06▼ |
| 8 | 1.87▲ | 1.90▼ |
| 8.5 | 2.03▲ | 1.78▼ |
| 9 | 2.31▲ | 1.58▼ |
| 9.5 | 2.57▲ | 1.49▼ |
| 10 | 2.86▲ | 1.39▼ |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
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Houston AstrosFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants?+
Our AI model favors Boston Red Sox to win, with a 57% probability (San Francisco Giants 43%).
What time does Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants start?+
First pitch is at Aug 22, 2026, 11:15 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants?+
Boston Red Sox: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3. San Francisco Giants: 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 3-2.