Chiba Lotte Marines vs Nippon Ham Fighters
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+0.5% edgeChiba Lotte Marines win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 3-4
The data suggests a competitive matchup between the Chiba Lotte Marines and Nippon Ham Fighters. While the Marines have a strong home win rate, their recent struggles in scoring compared to the Fighters' higher run average this season indicate a slight edge for Nippon Ham. Historically, Chiba Lotte has had success against Nippon Ham, but the overall form points toward an away victory.
- Chiba Lotte Marines have a home win rate of 55% this season.
- Nippon Ham Fighters have outscored their opponents 475 to 418 this season.
- In the last 10 games, Nippon Ham Fighters have averaged 5.4 runs scored per game, while Chiba Lotte Marines averaged only 2.8 runs.
Confidence is moderate because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Nippon Ham Fighters
- Sharper attackNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters are averaging 4.9 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
4.9/game - Tighter defenseNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters are conceding just 4.5 runs per game over their recent matches.
4.5/game conceded - Historical edgeNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Higher league positionNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters sit 2 places above Chiba Lotte Marines in the table.
#3 vs #5
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 52% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
Match trends
- Chiba Lotte Marines have averaged 3.6 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Nippon Ham Fighters have averaged 4.9 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Chiba Lotte Marines are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Nippon Ham Fighters.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Chiba Lotte Marines | Nippon Ham Fighters |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.30▲ | 1.29▼ |
| -1 | 2.75▲ | 1.36▼ |
| -0.5 | 2.10 | 1.66 |
| +0.5 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
| +1 | 1.76▲ | 1.91▼ |
| +1.5 | 1.59▲ | 2.27▼ |
| +2 | 1.43▲ | 2.58▼ |
| +2.5 | 1.36▲ | 2.91▼ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.30 | 3.16▲ |
| 5.5 | 1.50▲ | 2.44▼ |
| 6 | 1.57 | 2.23▲ |
| 6.5 | 1.74▲ | 2.02▼ |
| 7 | 1.93 | 1.77 |
| 7.5 | 2.19▲ | 1.61▼ |
| 8 | 2.46▲ | 1.48 |
| 8.5 | 2.69 | 1.42 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Nippon Ham Fighters
Chiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesChiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersLeague standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 116 | 66 | 50 | +69 | 57 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 118 | 63 | 55 | +27 | 53 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 117 | 53 | 64 | +6 | 45 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 116 | 52 | 64 | -71 | 45 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 120 | 51 | 69 | -7 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 113 | 46 | 67 | -82 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 117 | 72 | 45 | +180 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 120 | 68 | 52 | +38 | 57 | — |
| 3 | Nippon Ham Fighters | 120 | 66 | 54 | +66 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 119 | 57 | 62 | -70 | 48 | — |
| 5 | Chiba Lotte Marines | 114 | 52 | 62 | -73 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 116 | 45 | 71 | -83 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Yakult SwallowsHanshin TigersRakuten Gold. EaglesOrix BuffaloesYomiuri GiantsYokohama BayStarsChiba Lotte MarinesSeibu LionsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Chiba Lotte Marines vs Nippon Ham Fighters?+
Our AI model favors Nippon Ham Fighters to win, with a 52% probability (Chiba Lotte Marines 48%).
What time does Chiba Lotte Marines vs Nippon Ham Fighters start?+
First pitch is at Aug 22, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).