Chiba Lotte Marines vs Nippon Ham Fighters

NPB
LWLLRuns 28-505th in Pacific Division · 52-60
LLWWRuns 60-453rd in Pacific Division · 64-54
Home11W 9L(67-67)
Away10W 10L(88-59)
Today
First pitch
In Progress
Final

Box score

Team123456789XRHE
Chiba Lotte Marines
0001001101470
Nippon Ham Fighters
1020000000362

AI match analysis

Chiba Lotte Marines win
37.14%
Nippon Ham Fighters win
62.86%

Predicted score: 3-6

The data suggests that while Chiba Lotte Marines have a solid historical record against Nippon Ham Fighters, their recent performance has been lackluster, with an average of 2.6 runs scored over their last 10 games. In contrast, the Nippon Ham Fighters have shown a stronger offensive ability, averaging 5.2 runs scored in their recent performances, which hints at their advantage heading into this matchup. Consequently, the numbers favor Nippon Ham Fighters for this game.

  • Chiba Lotte Marines have lost 6 of their last 10 games, averaging only 2.6 runs scored per game.
  • Nippon Ham Fighters are performing better with a 5-5 record in their recent games, averaging 5.2 runs scored per game.
  • Historically, Chiba Lotte Marines have a slight edge in their head-to-head matchups, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
87/100

Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Nippon Ham Fighters

  • Sharper attackNippon Ham Fighters

    Nippon Ham Fighters are averaging 6 runs scored per game over their recent matches.

    6/game
  • Tighter defenseNippon Ham Fighters

    Nippon Ham Fighters are conceding just 4.5 runs per game over their recent matches.

    4.5/game conceded
  • Historical edgeNippon Ham Fighters

    Nippon Ham Fighters have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    3/5 H2H wins
  • Higher league positionNippon Ham Fighters

    Nippon Ham Fighters sit 2 places above Chiba Lotte Marines in the table.

    #3 vs #5

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Nippon Ham Fighters at 62.86% — final result was Chiba Lotte Marines win, Chiba Lotte Marines 4-3 Nippon Ham Fighters.

Predicted score was 3-6.

This was a high confidence pick (87/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Nippon Ham Fighters1.55market 64.5% · model 62.86%
Chiba Lotte Marines2.39market 41.9% · model 37.14%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Chiba Lotte Marines have averaged 2.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Nippon Ham Fighters have averaged 6 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Chiba Lotte Marines are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Nippon Ham Fighters.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Chiba Lotte Marines2.39best 2.53AI 37.14%
Nippon Ham Fighters1.55best 1.59AI 62.86%

Point spread

LineChiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham Fighters
-13.311.25
-0.52.381.52
+0.52.211.60
+11.961.71
+1.51.742.03
+21.562.28
+2.51.432.62
+31.332.98

Total points

LineOverUnder
51.342.96
5.51.562.32
61.642.13
6.51.841.90
72.021.71
7.52.311.55
82.591.44
8.52.781.38

Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Chiba Lotte Marines2.39 0.05
Nippon Ham Fighters1.55 0.02
21 Aug21 Aug

Model vs market

Chiba Lotte Marines win-2.3pp
AI
37.14%
Market
39.4%
Nippon Ham Fighters win+2.3pp
AI
62.86%
Market
60.6%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2Chiba Lotte Marines wins
3Nippon Ham Fighters wins
13-14Runs

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Hanshin Tigers
1146450+6356
2
Yomiuri Giants
1166353+3354
3
Yokohama BayStars
1155164+344
4
Yakult Swallows
1145064-8144
5
Chunichi Dragons
1185167-443
6
Hiroshima Carp
1114665-7241
1
Fukuoka S. Hawks
1157144+17962
2
Seibu Lions
1186652+3356
3
Nippon Ham Fighters
1186454+6254
4
Orix Buffaloes
1175661-6948
5
Chiba Lotte Marines
1125260-6946
6
Rakuten Gold. Eagles
1144569-7840

More NPB predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Chiba Lotte Marines vs Nippon Ham Fighters?+

Our AI model favors Nippon Ham Fighters to win, with a 62.86% probability (Chiba Lotte Marines 37.14%).

What time does Chiba Lotte Marines vs Nippon Ham Fighters start?+

First pitch is at Aug 21, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the inning-by-inning score in Chiba Lotte Marines vs Nippon Ham Fighters?+

Chiba Lotte Marines: 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0. Nippon Ham Fighters: 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Final: 4-3.