Chiba Lotte Marines vs Nippon Ham Fighters
Value found
+2.3% edgeChiba Lotte Marines win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chiba Lotte Marines | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 | 9 | 0 |
 Nippon Ham Fighters | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 4-5
Data suggests a closely contested matchup, with Nippon Ham Fighters slightly favored based on their overall performance and scoring averages. Historically, Chiba Lotte Marines have fared well in recent encounters, winning 4 of the last 5 games against Nippon Ham Fighters. The numbers favor Nippon Ham to edge this game with a predicted score of 5 to 4.
- Chiba Lotte Marines have a home win rate of 55% this season
- Nippon Ham Fighters rank higher in the division with a win percentage of 0.548
- In their last 10 games, Nippon Ham Fighters averaged 5.4 runs scored per game compared to Chiba Lotte's 2.8
- Chiba Lotte Marines have won 4 of the last 5 matchups against Nippon Ham Fighters
Confidence is moderate because the two teams are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Nippon Ham Fighters
- Sharper attackNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters are averaging 6 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
6/game - Tighter defenseNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters are conceding just 4.5 runs per game over their recent matches.
4.5/game conceded - Historical edgeNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Higher league positionNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters sit 2 places above Chiba Lotte Marines in the table.
#3 vs #5
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 52% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Nippon Ham Fighters at 51.5% — final result was Chiba Lotte Marines win, Chiba Lotte Marines 3-2 Nippon Ham Fighters.
Predicted score was 4-5.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (65/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Chiba Lotte Marines have averaged 2.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Nippon Ham Fighters have averaged 6 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Chiba Lotte Marines are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Nippon Ham Fighters.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Chiba Lotte Marines | Nippon Ham Fighters |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.24 | 1.30 |
| -1 | 2.71 | 1.37 |
| -0.5 | 2.09 | 1.67 |
| +0.5 | 1.99 | 1.73 |
| +1 | 1.76 | 1.91 |
| +1.5 | 1.61 | 2.25 |
| +2 | 1.44 | 2.58 |
| +2.5 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 1.44 | 2.67 |
| 6 | 1.47 | 2.50 |
| 6.5 | 1.63 | 2.15 |
| 7 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
| 7.5 | 2.04 | 1.72 |
| 8 | 2.19 | 1.60 |
| 8.5 | 2.43 | 1.51 |
| 9 | 2.79 | 1.35 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesChiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersLeague standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 114 | 64 | 50 | +63 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 116 | 63 | 53 | +33 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 115 | 51 | 64 | +3 | 44 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 114 | 50 | 64 | -81 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 118 | 51 | 67 | -4 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 111 | 46 | 65 | -72 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 115 | 71 | 44 | +179 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 118 | 66 | 52 | +33 | 56 | — |
| 3 | Nippon Ham Fighters | 118 | 64 | 54 | +62 | 54 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 117 | 56 | 61 | -69 | 48 | — |
| 5 | Chiba Lotte Marines | 112 | 52 | 60 | -69 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 114 | 45 | 69 | -78 | 40 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsOrix BuffaloesFukuoka S. HawksFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Chiba Lotte Marines vs Nippon Ham Fighters?+
Our AI model favors Nippon Ham Fighters to win, with a 51.5% probability (Chiba Lotte Marines 48.5%).
What time does Chiba Lotte Marines vs Nippon Ham Fighters start?+
First pitch is at Aug 23, 2026, 8:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Chiba Lotte Marines vs Nippon Ham Fighters?+
Chiba Lotte Marines: 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0. Nippon Ham Fighters: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0. Final: 3-2.