Nippon Ham Fighters vs Chiba Lotte Marines
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nippon Ham Fighters | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 | 9 | 0 |
 Chiba Lotte Marines | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 6-3
The statistics suggest a favorable matchup for the Nippon Ham Fighters, given their higher home win rate and recent scoring performance. Despite Chiba Lotte Marines winning three of the last five encounters, their struggles away from home and lower scoring averages present significant challenges. The Fighters' overall form and stronger offense position them as the likely victors in this matchup.
- Nippon Ham Fighters have a home win rate of 58% this season.
- Chiba Lotte Marines have struggled with an away win rate of just 35%.
- Nippon Ham Fighters scored an average of 5.6 runs in their last 10 games, compared to Chiba Lotte Marines' 2.9 runs.
- Chiba Lotte Marines have a head-to-head advantage in their last five matchups, winning three.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Nippon Ham Fighters
- Sharper attackNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters are averaging 6 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
6/game - Strong home recordNippon Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters have won 12 of their last 19 home matches.
12/19 home wins - Weak away recordChiba Lotte Marines
Chiba Lotte Marines have won 7 of their last 20 away matches.
7/20 away wins - Historical edgeChiba Lotte Marines
Chiba Lotte Marines have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Nippon Ham Fighters at 67% — final result was Nippon Ham Fighters win, Nippon Ham Fighters 6-4 Chiba Lotte Marines.
Predicted score was 6-3.
This was a high confidence pick (94/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Nippon Ham Fighters have averaged 6 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Chiba Lotte Marines have averaged 2.8 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Nippon Ham Fighters are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Chiba Lotte Marines.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Nippon Ham Fighters | Chiba Lotte Marines |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 2.85▼ | 1.40▲ |
| -3 | 2.55▲ | 1.43 |
| -2.5 | 2.26▼ | 1.58▲ |
| -2 | 2.04▲ | 1.71▲ |
| -1.5 | 1.82▼ | 1.93▲ |
| -1 | 1.54▼ | 2.26▲ |
| -0.5 | 1.42 | 2.70 |
| +0.5 | 1.36 | 2.90 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.32 | 2.97 |
| 6.5 | 1.46▼ | 2.52 |
| 7 | 1.57▲ | 2.27▼ |
| 7.5 | 1.79▲ | 1.94▼ |
| 8 | 1.91▲ | 1.79 |
| 8.5 | 2.10▲ | 1.67 |
| 9 | 2.36▲ | 1.52▼ |
| 9.5 | 2.68▲ | 1.45 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Chiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesNippon Ham FightersLeague standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 114 | 64 | 50 | +63 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 116 | 63 | 53 | +33 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 115 | 51 | 64 | +3 | 44 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 114 | 50 | 64 | -81 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 118 | 51 | 67 | -4 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 111 | 46 | 65 | -72 | 41 | — |
| 1 |  Fukuoka S. Hawks | 115 | 71 | 44 | +179 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 118 | 66 | 52 | +33 | 56 | — |
| 3 | Nippon Ham Fighters | 118 | 64 | 54 | +62 | 54 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 117 | 56 | 61 | -69 | 48 | — |
| 5 | Chiba Lotte Marines | 112 | 52 | 60 | -69 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 114 | 45 | 69 | -78 | 40 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHanshin TigersYomiuri GiantsHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Nippon Ham Fighters vs Chiba Lotte Marines?+
Our AI model favors Nippon Ham Fighters to win, with a 67% probability (Chiba Lotte Marines 33%).
What time does Nippon Ham Fighters vs Chiba Lotte Marines start?+
First pitch is at Aug 28, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Nippon Ham Fighters vs Chiba Lotte Marines?+
Nippon Ham Fighters: 0, 0, 4, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0. Chiba Lotte Marines: 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0. Final: 6-4.