Connecticut Sun W vs Los Angeles Sparks W
Mohegan Sun Arena
Value found
+28.2% edgeLos Angeles Sparks W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 160 total points vs the market's 173.5 line — leans under by 13.5 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Connecticut Sun W | 27 | 19 | 26 | 13 | 85 |
 Los Angeles Sparks W | 20 | 20 | 15 | 22 | 77 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 72-88
Data suggests that the Los Angeles Sparks W have a distinct advantage going into this matchup, boasting a stronger recent form with 6 wins in their last 10 games compared to Connecticut's 2. Furthermore, historical head-to-head results favor the Sparks, who have consistently defeated the Sun, winning all of the last five encounters. Based on current performance metrics, the predicted scores suggest a solid outing for the Sparks.
- Connecticut Sun W has lost 8 of its last 10 games
- Los Angeles Sparks W has won 6 of its last 10 games
- Los Angeles Sparks W has a 50% away win rate this season
- Recent head-to-head history shows Los Angeles Sparks W winning 5 consecutive matchups against Connecticut Sun W.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market sees this differently, which tempers confidence, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Los Angeles Sparks W
- Sharper attackLos Angeles Sparks W
Los Angeles Sparks W are averaging 79.6 points scored per game over their recent matches.
79.6/game - Poor recent formConnecticut Sun W
Connecticut Sun W have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L - Poor recent formLos Angeles Sparks W
Los Angeles Sparks W have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
1W 0D 4L - Historical edgeLos Angeles Sparks W
Los Angeles Sparks W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
4/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Los Angeles Sparks W at 71% — final result was Connecticut Sun W win, Connecticut Sun W 85-77 Los Angeles Sparks W.
Predicted score was 72-88.
The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (71/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Connecticut Sun W have averaged 75.1 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Los Angeles Sparks W have averaged 79.6 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Connecticut Sun W are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with Los Angeles Sparks W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Connecticut Sun W | Los Angeles Sparks W |
|---|---|---|
| -3 | 1.67 | 2.08 |
| -2.5 | 1.76 | 2.00 |
| -2 | 1.77 | 1.98 |
| -1.5 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| -1 | 1.92 | 1.80 |
| -0.5 | 2.02 | 1.81 |
| +0.5 | 2.02 | 1.81 |
| +1 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 172 | 1.72 | 2.02 |
| 172.5 | 1.77 | 1.97 |
| 173 | 1.80 | 1.92 |
| 173.5 | 1.88 | 1.89 |
| 174 | 1.92 | 1.80 |
| 174.5 | 1.92 | 1.80 |
| 175 | 2.02 | 1.72 |
| 175.5 | 2.03 | 1.72 |
Average price across 9 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Box score
Connecticut Sun W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 29:15 | 18 | 11 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 4/4 |
| Burke Kennedy | 26:23 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0/0 | 3/4 | 0/0 |
| D. Miller | 29:05 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/1 |
| C. Leger-Walker | 30:33 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3/3 |
| Lacan Leila | 28:31 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/1 |
Bench (5)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Rivers | 24:39 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 1/2 |
| R. Beers | 13:32 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
| N. Angloma | 11:07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 |
| A. Jackson | 5:11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/0 |
| G. Kneepkens | 1:44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
Los Angeles Sparks W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Burrell | 29:45 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 4/6 |
| N. Ogwumike | 30:21 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 2/2 |
| D. Hamby | 27:52 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 5/6 |
| A. Atkins | 26:01 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 4/4 |
| T. Morgan | 19:57 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
Bench (5)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Cannon | 6:20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/3 |
| C. Gray | 20:03 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 0/0 |
| K. Martin | 11:53 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
| Park Ji-Hyun | 12:21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
| A. Pili | 15:27 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/2 |
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Los Angeles Sparks WConnecticut Sun WLos Angeles Sparks WConnecticut Sun WConnecticut Sun WLos Angeles Sparks WLos Angeles Sparks WConnecticut Sun WLos Angeles Sparks WConnecticut Sun WLeague standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 2 |  Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 3 |  New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 4 |  Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 5 |  Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 6 |  Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 7 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 |  Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 5 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 6 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 7 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 8 |  Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 9 |  Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 10 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 11 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 12 |  Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 15 |  Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 5 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 8 | Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
New York Liberty WChicago Sky WPhoenix Mercury WToronto Tempo WAtlanta Dream WMinnesota Lynx WSeattle Storm WLos Angeles Sparks WFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Connecticut Sun W vs Los Angeles Sparks W?+
Our AI model favors Los Angeles Sparks W to win, with a 71% probability (Connecticut Sun W 29%).
What time does Connecticut Sun W vs Los Angeles Sparks W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 18, 2026, 11:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Connecticut Sun W vs Los Angeles Sparks W?+
Connecticut Sun W: 27-19-26-13. Los Angeles Sparks W: 20-20-15-22. Final: 85-77.