Los Angeles Sparks W vs Connecticut Sun W
Crypto.com Arena
Total points edge
AI expects 152 total points vs the market's 170.5 line — leans under by 18.5 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Sparks W | 32 | 12 | 22 | 11 | 77 |
 Connecticut Sun W | 22 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 68 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 82-70
Data suggests that the Los Angeles Sparks W, with a higher home-winning percentage and the benefit of playing at Crypto.com Arena, are favored in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Connecticut Sun W are struggling away from home with only a 15% win rate this season and lower average points scored over their last 10 games. Historical performance in head-to-head encounters further indicates that while the Sun have had some success, the Sparks have often come out on top in their matchups.
- Los Angeles Sparks W have won 3 of their last 10 games but have a home win rate of only 40% this season.
- Connecticut Sun W have a poor away win rate at 15% and have lost 8 of their last 10 games.
- In head-to-head matchups, Connecticut Sun W won the last encounter but have lost four of the last five against the Sparks.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Los Angeles Sparks W
- Sharper attackLos Angeles Sparks W
Los Angeles Sparks W are averaging 80.5 points scored per game over their recent matches.
80.5/game - Historical edgeLos Angeles Sparks W
Los Angeles Sparks W have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Tighter defenseConnecticut Sun W
Connecticut Sun W are conceding just 87 points per game over their recent matches.
87/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Los Angeles Sparks W at 65% — final result was Los Angeles Sparks W win, Los Angeles Sparks W 77-68 Connecticut Sun W.
Predicted score was 82-70.
This was a high confidence pick (77/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Los Angeles Sparks W have averaged 80.5 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Connecticut Sun W have averaged 74.7 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Los Angeles Sparks W are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Connecticut Sun W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Los Angeles Sparks W | Connecticut Sun W |
|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | 2.04▼ | 1.72▲ |
| -6 | 2.02▼ | 1.76▲ |
| -5.5 | 1.93▼ | 1.83▲ |
| -5 | 1.90▼ | 1.87▲ |
| -4.5 | 1.83▼ | 1.92▲ |
| -4 | 1.80▼ | 1.96▲ |
| -3.5 | 1.73▼ | 2.05▲ |
| -3 | 1.71▼ | 2.07▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 168 | 1.75▼ | 1.99▲ |
| 168.5 | 1.74▼ | 2.02▲ |
| 169 | 1.82▼ | 1.93▲ |
| 169.5 | 1.79▼ | 1.95▲ |
| 170 | 1.90▼ | 1.87▲ |
| 170.5 | 1.88▼ | 1.87▲ |
| 171 | 1.97▼ | 1.81▲ |
| 171.5 | 1.95▼ | 1.81▲ |
Double chance
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Box score
Los Angeles Sparks W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Burrell | 30:08 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0/0 | 2/5 | 2/4 |
| N. Ogwumike | 33:06 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 3/3 |
| Wheeler Erica | 25:18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 0/0 | 3/6 | 0/0 |
| D. Hamby | 20:33 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 6/8 |
| A. Atkins | 24:39 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 2/2 |
Bench (6)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Brink | 11:54 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 |
| C. Gray | 12:12 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 2/2 |
| E. Cannon | 11:55 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 |
| Makani Monique | 11:25 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
| T. Morgan | 14:42 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
| Park Ji-Hyun | 4:08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 |
Connecticut Sun W
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lacan Leila | 28:55 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 0/0 | 1/6 | 0/1 |
| Burke Kennedy | 30:47 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 1/1 |
| C. Leger-Walker | 22:15 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/0 |
| D. Miller | 13:24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/0 |
| O. Nelson-Ododa | 10:03 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
Bench (6)
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG | 3PT | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Rivers | 27:30 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 3/6 |
| R. Beers | 13:57 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 6/8 |
| G. Kneepkens | 18:37 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/2 |
| N. Angloma | 11:23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 |
| A. Jackson | 13:00 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 |
| H. Van Lith | 10:09 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 |
Match statistics
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Connecticut Sun WLos Angeles Sparks WLos Angeles Sparks WConnecticut Sun WConnecticut Sun WLos Angeles Sparks WLos Angeles Sparks WConnecticut Sun WLos Angeles Sparks WConnecticut Sun WLeague standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 2 |  Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 3 |  New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 4 |  Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 5 |  Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 6 |  Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 7 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 |  Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 5 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 6 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 7 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 8 |  Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 9 |  Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 10 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 11 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 12 |  Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 15 |  Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 5 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 8 | Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
Los Angeles Sparks WWashington Mystics WLas Vegas Aces WToronto Tempo WNew York Liberty WChicago Sky WPhoenix Mercury WToronto Tempo WFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Los Angeles Sparks W vs Connecticut Sun W?+
Our AI model favors Los Angeles Sparks W to win, with a 65% probability (Connecticut Sun W 35%).
What time does Los Angeles Sparks W vs Connecticut Sun W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 23, 2026, 1:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Los Angeles Sparks W vs Connecticut Sun W?+
Los Angeles Sparks W: 32-12-22-11. Connecticut Sun W: 22-14-10-22. Final: 77-68.