Indiana Fever W vs New York Liberty W

NBA W
LLWWPts 999-9362nd in Eastern Conference · 25-14
WLWLPts 814-8563rd in Eastern Conference · 23-15
Home14W 6L(1792-1614)
Away7W 13L(1613-1695)

Gainbridge Fieldhouse

Value found

+52.8% edge

New York Liberty W win

1.47AI fair odds
2.25Bookmaker odds
+52.8%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Total points edge

AI expects 160 total points vs the market's 191 line — leans under by 31 points.

Today
Tip-off
In Progress
Final

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Indiana Fever W
29352319106
New York Liberty W
2323212592

AI match analysis

Indiana Fever W win
32%
New York Liberty W win
68%

Predicted score: 80-80

Data suggests that New York Liberty W has a historical edge over Indiana Fever W, having won three of their last five encounters. Indiana Fever W, while capable of scoring, also concedes an average of nearly 80 points, which may hinder their chances. The recent form of New York Liberty W, with four wins in their last five games, further indicates they are the stronger side heading into this matchup.

  • New York Liberty W has won 3 of their last 5 matchups against Indiana Fever W.
  • Indiana Fever W averages 82.6 points scored but concedes 79.9 in their last 10 matches.
  • New York Liberty W's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
75/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors New York Liberty W

  • Good recent formIndiana Fever W

    Indiana Fever W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Good recent formNew York Liberty W

    New York Liberty W have won 3 of their last 5 matches.

    3W 0D 2L
  • Historical edgeNew York Liberty W

    New York Liberty W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

    4/5 H2H wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked New York Liberty W at 68% — final result was Indiana Fever W win, Indiana Fever W 106-92 New York Liberty W.

Predicted score was 80-80.

This was a high confidence pick (75/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Indiana Fever W1.65market 60.7% · model 32%
New York Liberty W2.25market 44.5% · model 68%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Indiana Fever W have averaged 99.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • New York Liberty W have averaged 81.4 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Indiana Fever W are unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 meetings with New York Liberty W.

Odds comparison

Moneyline

Indiana Fever W1.65best 1.68AI 32%
New York Liberty W2.25best 2.32AI 68%

Point spread

LineIndiana Fever WNew York Liberty W
-52.101.69
-4.52.041.73
-41.991.79
-3.51.921.85
-31.881.92
-2.51.801.96
-21.742.03
-1.51.712.05

Total points

LineOverUnder
189.51.781.98
1901.801.95
190.51.861.91
1911.871.89
191.51.921.84
1921.941.80
192.51.991.77
1931.981.78

Double chance

Draw/Away2.04
Home/Draw1.53

Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Moneyline — odds movement

Indiana Fever W1.65 0.01
New York Liberty W2.25 0.07
11 Aug11 Aug

Model vs market

Indiana Fever W win-25.7pp
AI
32%
Market
57.7%
New York Liberty W win+25.7pp
AI
68%
Market
42.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Box score

Indiana Fever W

PlayerMinPtsRebAstFG3PTFT
K. Mitchell31:1228337/124/42/3
C. Clark34:50224103/74/84/4
A. Boston25:4319744/103/52/2
L. Hull17:565111/11/10/0
M. Timpson27:573701/20/01/2
Bench (6)
PlayerMinPtsRebAstFG3PTFT
Billings Monique17:2714114/80/06/6
S. Cunningham22:0412200/04/50/0
M. Hines-Allen07:572201/20/20/0
T. Harris11:251030/10/01/2
R. Johnson02:330000/10/00/0
M. Russell00:560000/00/00/0

New York Liberty W

PlayerMinPtsRebAstFG3PTFT
S. Ionescu27:3919456/61/54/4
B. Stewart29:3119757/161/52/2
J. Jones29:38141022/33/41/1
R. Allen24:1811211/13/50/0
Astier Pauline17:473330/30/03/4
Bench (5)
PlayerMinPtsRebAstFG3PTFT
Johannes Marine17:368011/12/90/0
Han Xu17:057513/40/31/2
Gardner Rebekah16:186623/30/10/0
Fauthoux Marine16:225131/31/30/0
Carrera Raquel03:460100/00/10/0

Match statistics

48%Field goal %60%
64%3-point %31%
84%Free throw %85%
27Rebounds39
22Assists23
7Steals7
4Blocks5
11Turnovers13
Personal fouls

Players to watch

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1Indiana Fever W wins
4New York Liberty W wins
453-483Points

League standings

#TeamPWLDiffWin%Form
1
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
2
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
3
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
4
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
5
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
6
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
7
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Atlanta Dream W
372413+20765
5
Indiana Fever W
392514+22264
6
New York Liberty W
382315+11961
7
Washington Mystics W
372215-1960
8
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
9
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
10
Chicago Sky W
381523-9540
11
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
12
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
13
Toronto Tempo W
371126-23730
14
Connecticut Sun W
36927-28825
15
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018
1
Minnesota Lynx W
38317+33782
2
Golden State Valkyries W
362511+21269
3
Las Vegas Aces W
392613+14367
4
Dallas Wings W
382216+10258
5
Portland Fire W
371522-16241
6
Los Angeles Sparks W
371324-19335
7
Phoenix Mercury W
371324-13835
8
Seattle Storm W
38731-21018

Season comparison

90.7Points scored per game78.8
85.4Points allowed per game80.8
47%Field goal %44.9%
38.9%3-point %31.1%
80.1%Free throw %77.3%
33.1Rebounds per game33.4
18.1Assists per game20.3
12.9Turnovers per game13.1

Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.

More NBA W predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Indiana Fever W vs New York Liberty W?+

Our AI model favors New York Liberty W to win, with a 68% probability (Indiana Fever W 32%).

What time does Indiana Fever W vs New York Liberty W start?+

Tip-off is at Aug 11, 2026, 11:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).

What was the score by quarter in Indiana Fever W vs New York Liberty W?+

Indiana Fever W: 29-35-23-19. New York Liberty W: 23-23-21-25. Final: 106-92.