New York Liberty W vs Indiana Fever W
Barclays Center
Total points edge
AI expects 160 total points vs the market's 187 line — leans under by 27 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New York Liberty W | 33 | 20 | 32 | 24 | 109 |
 Indiana Fever W | 26 | 23 | 29 | 24 | 102 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 84-76
Data suggests that the New York Liberty W holds a slight advantage due to their 70% home win rate this season, despite fluctuating recent form. The Indiana Fever W has performed well against Liberty historically but is facing a tougher matchup at Liberty's home court. Both teams have high scoring averages, which could indicate a competitive game, but the numbers favor the Liberty slightly.
- New York Liberty W has a home win rate of 70% this season.
- Indiana Fever W has outscored New York Liberty W in 3 of their last 5 matchups.
- Liberty's last 10 games show they scored an average of 80.4 points while allowing 81.7 points per game.
Confidence is moderate because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors New York Liberty W
- Sharper attackIndiana Fever W
Indiana Fever W are averaging 99.9 points scored per game over their recent matches.
99.9/game - Tighter defenseNew York Liberty W
New York Liberty W are conceding just 85.6 points per game over their recent matches.
85.6/game conceded - Historical edgeNew York Liberty W
New York Liberty W have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 57% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked New York Liberty W at 57% — final result was New York Liberty W win, New York Liberty W 109-102 Indiana Fever W.
Predicted score was 84-76.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (63/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- New York Liberty W have averaged 81.4 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Indiana Fever W have averaged 99.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- New York Liberty W are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Indiana Fever W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | New York Liberty W | Indiana Fever W |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 2.01▼ | 1.75▲ |
| -4 | 1.97▼ | 1.82▲ |
| -3.5 | 1.90▼ | 1.87▲ |
| -3 | 1.86▼ | 1.93▲ |
| -2.5 | 1.79▼ | 1.97▲ |
| -2 | 1.74▼ | 2.05▲ |
| -1.5 | 1.72▼ | 2.05▲ |
| -1 | 1.71▼ | 2.08▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 185 | 1.74▼ | 2.01▲ |
| 185.5 | 1.79▼ | 1.95▲ |
| 186 | 1.81▼ | 1.94▲ |
| 186.5 | 1.86▼ | 1.90▲ |
| 187 | 1.88▼ | 1.86▲ |
| 187.5 | 1.94▼ | 1.81▲ |
| 188 | 1.96▼ | 1.79▲ |
| 188.5 | 2.02▼ | 1.74▲ |
Double chance
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Indiana Fever WNew York Liberty WNew York Liberty WIndiana Fever WNew York Liberty WIndiana Fever WIndiana Fever WNew York Liberty WIndiana Fever WNew York Liberty WLeague standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 2 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 3 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 4 |  Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 5 |  Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 6 |  Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 7 |  Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 |  Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 5 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 6 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 7 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 8 |  Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 9 |  Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 10 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 12 |  Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 15 |  Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 5 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 8 | Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
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Who is likely to win New York Liberty W vs Indiana Fever W?+
Our AI model favors New York Liberty W to win, with a 57% probability (Indiana Fever W 43%).
What time does New York Liberty W vs Indiana Fever W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 22, 2026, 11:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in New York Liberty W vs Indiana Fever W?+
New York Liberty W: 33-20-32-24. Indiana Fever W: 26-23-29-24. Final: 109-102.