Lech Poznan vs FC Thun
Value found
+2.8% edgeFC Thun win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 10'P. Wålemark (A. Sayyadmanesh)
- 20'A. Sayyadmanesh (Pablo Rodríguez)
- 25'P. Wålemark (M. Gurgul)
- 31'M. Skrzypczak (A. Kozubal)
- 38'P. Wålemark (D. Håkans)
- 45+1'M. Gutbub (F. Dursun)
- 45'R. Murawski (Pablo Rodríguez)
- 46'Michael Heule (T. Strannegard)
- 46'Nassim Zoukit (F. Saiz)
- 47'D. Håkans (A. Sayyadmanesh)
- 50'Nils Reichmuth
- 56'Nils Reichmuth (Nicolas Bürgy)
- 64'Luis Palma (Gustav Berggren)
- 65'Pablo Rodríguez (Robert Gumny)
- 66'Goal Disallowed - offside — F. Dursun
- 66'F. Dursun (T. Strannegard)
- 70'T. Strannegard
- 79'Robert Gumny (Gustav Berggren)
- 80'A. Sayyadmanesh (W. Szymczak)
- 80'Brighton Labeau (L. Dahler)
- 80'A. Kozubal (K. Delikat)
- 83'A. Kozubal (K. Delikat)
- 83'A. Sayyadmanesh (W. Szymczak)
- 83'Brighton Labeau (L. Dahler)
- 87'R. Murawski
- 1.8
- Goals/game
- 1.8
- 1.2
- Conceded/game
- 2.4
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 2-1
Data suggests that Lech Poznan, with a solid home record and a strong recent form of four wins in their last five matches, is favored to secure a victory. They also boast an average of 1.8 goals scored per game recently, compared to FC Thun's defensive struggles with an average of 2.4 goals conceded per game. The numbers from bookmakers further indicate a high probability of a Lech Poznan win, reinforcing their home advantage in this matchup.
- Lech Poznan has won 4 of their last 5 matches
- Lech averages 1.8 goals scored per game in last 10 matches
- FC Thun has conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game in last 10 matches
- Bookmaker-implied probabilities suggest a strong home advantage
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and this fixture has limited historical data available so far.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Lech Poznan
- Good recent formLech Poznan
Lech Poznan have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L - Poor recent formFC Thun
FC Thun have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
1W 1D 3L - Tighter defenseLech Poznan
Lech Poznan are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.2/game conceded
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Lech Poznan at 64% — final result was Lech Poznan win, Lech Poznan 7-0 FC Thun.
Predicted score was 2-1.
This was a high confidence pick (79/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Lech Poznan have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- FC Thun have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings on record.
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Lech Poznan
FC Thun
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Kairat AlmatyFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Lech Poznan vs FC Thun?+
Our AI model favors Lech Poznan to win, with a 64% probability (Draw 18%, FC Thun 18%).
What time does Lech Poznan vs FC Thun kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 20, 2026, 5:00 PM (your local time, based on your device).