Leixoes vs Tondela
Estádio do Mar, Matosinhos · Capacity 9,730 · grass · Referee: L. M. Branco Godinho
Match events
- 38'H. Tavares
- 38'Salvador Agra
- 45+5'Cicero
- 55'Joao Lima (G. Novero)
- 55'H. Felix (Tomane)
- 60'Bica
- 72'Salvador Agra (Luccas Paraizo)
- 72'B. Rochez (R. Pina)
- 76'H. Tavares (Y. Sithole)
- 79'Tomane
- 79'Rafael Barbosa (N. Serif)
- 79'Simão (L. Figueiredo)
- 83'Bica (M. Moshood)
- 86'Farru (Bebeto)
- 86'C. Marques (Arjen Van Der Heide)
- 90+1'G. Novero
- 90+2'R. Pina
- 90+5'Ze Ricardo
Lineups
- 1.8
- Goals/game
- 1.1
- 1.2
- Conceded/game
- 1.2
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
Data suggests that Tondela enters this match with stronger recent form and a favorable historical performance against Leixoes. The head-to-head results lean towards Tondela's advantage, having scored more frequently in past encounters. Given Leixoes' recent struggles, a close scoreline or draw appears likely.
- Tondela has won 4 of the last 5 matches against Leixoes
- Leixoes has lost their last game and has a negative goal difference this season
- Tondela has a better recent form with a win in their last match
Confidence is high because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Leixoes
- Higher league positionLeixoes
Leixoes sit 2 places above Tondela in the table.
#7 vs #9 - Sharper attackLeixoes
Leixoes are averaging 1.8 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.8/game - Good recent formLeixoes
Leixoes have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 0D 2L - Poor recent formTondela
Tondela have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 36% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Leixoes at 36% — final result was Leixoes win, Leixoes 1-0 Tondela.
Predicted score was 1-1.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (70/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Leixoes have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Tondela have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 4 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
Referee
L. M. Branco Godinho
Based on 1 matches officiated (our own data).
When do they score?
Tondela
More Segunda Liga predictions
Leixoes
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Vizela
Amarante
Lusitânia Lourosa
Torreense
Chaves
AVSFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Leixoes vs Tondela?+
Our AI model favors Leixoes to win, with a 36% probability (Draw 32%, Tondela 32%).
Where is Leixoes vs Tondela played?+
The match is played at Estádio do Mar, Matosinhos (capacity 9,730).
What time does Leixoes vs Tondela kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 16, 2026, 2:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).