Manta FC vs Leones del Norte — Liga Pro

Liga Pro· Regular Season - 25

Manta FC

0–2Full-time

Leones del Norte

LLWWWLGoals 17-1916th in league

WWWLLLGoals 17-107th in league

Home2W 3D 8L(5-14)

Away4W 3D 6L(11-16)

Estadio Jocay, Manta · Capacity 17,834 · grass

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

17'E. Griffa (S. Portocarrero)
20'S. Portocarrero
40'S. Portocarrero (M. de la Cruz)
59'J. Blanco (J. Angulo)
59'J. Troya (J. Verges)
64'G. Mina (J. Chala)
68'Óscar Pepinos (B. Kreiman)
68'D. Pazmino (Cristhian Solano)
74'J. Anangono (J. Anangono)
76'E. A. Medina (W. Chala)
76'Brian Ramirez
79'Octavio Moscarelli (W. Chala)
79'Robert Burbano (Feyiseitan Asagidigbi)
83'Leonel Nazareno
89'J. Anangono (T. Amilivia)
89'E. Griffa (Ronny Borja)
90+1'Ronny Borja (Cristhian Solano)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Manta FCLeones del Norte

1.7
Goals/game: 1.7; 1.9
Conceded/game: 1.0

AI match analysis

Manta FC win

33%

Draw

31%

Leones del Norte win

36%

61.8%BTTS

61%Over 2.5

16.5%Manta FC clean sheet

25.9%Leones del Norte clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

Data suggests that Leones del Norte holds a slight advantage based on their recent form, with two wins in their last five matches compared to Manta FC's two wins in the same period. Historically, Manta FC's home performance has been weak, contributing to their low league standing as they battle relegation. The numbers indicate a possible 2-1 scoreline favoring Leones del Norte.

Manta FC has a recent form of WLLDL, indicating inconsistency.
Leones del Norte's last 9 matches average 1.67 goals scored and only 0.78 conceded.
Manta FC has a poor home record this season with only 2 wins out of 12 games.

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

62/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Leones del Norte

Higher league positionLeones del Norte
Leones del Norte sit 9 places above Manta FC in the table.
#7 vs #16
Good recent formManta FC
Manta FC have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
4W 0D 1L
Poor recent formLeones del Norte
Leones del Norte have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
2W 0D 3L
Tighter defenseLeones del Norte
Leones del Norte are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 36% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Leones del Norte at 36% — final result was Leones del Norte win, Manta FC 0-2 Leones del Norte.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (62/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.

Closing odds vs. our model

Manta FC2.59market 38.7% · model 33%

Leones del Norte ✓2.76market 36.2% · model 36%

Draw2.85market 35.1% · model 31%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Manta FC have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Leones del Norte have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Manta FC2.59▼best 2.82

Draw2.85▼best 3.00

Leones del Norte2.76▲best 2.96

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.54▲best 2.77

Under 2.51.44▼best 1.50

Both teams to score

Yes2.05▼best 2.10

No1.64▲best 1.70

Double chance

Manta FC/Draw1.39▼best 1.45

Manta FC/Leones del Norte1.34▲best 1.40

Draw/Leones del Norte1.42▲best 1.50

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.62best 2.62

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.44best 1.44

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.62best 2.62

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.44best 1.44

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Manta FC2.59▼ 0.24

Draw2.85

Leones del Norte2.76▲ 0.19

12 Aug – 15 Aug

Model vs market

Manta FC win-2.1pp

33%

Market

35.1%

Draw-0.9pp

31%

Market

31.9%

Leones del Norte win+3pp

36%

Market

33%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.