Nautico Recife vs Ceara — Serie B

Serie B· Regular Season - 23

Nautico Recife

1–0Full-time

Ceara

WWLLDDGoals 14-915th in league

LWDLLLGoals 8-1517th in league

Home5W 2D 4L(10-8)

Away2W 4D 5L(10-15)

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

38'Derek
38'Goal Disallowed - handball — Derek
45+2'Kauan Maranhao
45+9'Leo Indio (Jean Carlos)
46'R. Ramos (Giulio)
46'Lucca (L. Mugni)
46'Richard (Matheus Nogueira)
62'Melk (Matheus Araújo)
66'Ryan Carlos (Wanderson)
66'B. Borasi (Vinicius)
68'Reginaldo Lopes
71'Samuel Felix (Auremir)
71'Wenderson (Caio)
71'Derek (Victor Andrade)
79'Caio
80'Matheus Araújo
83'Júlio César (Aloisio)
85'Wanderson
87'Jean Carlos
90+2'Victor Andrade

Lineups unavailable for this match.

Nautico RecifeCeara

1.4
Goals/game: 0.8; 0.9
Conceded/game: 1.5

AI match analysis

Nautico Recife win

43.76%

Draw

31.87%

Ceara win

24.37%

43.8%BTTS

40.4%Over 2.5

42.7%Nautico Recife clean sheet

23.5%Ceara clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The data suggests a closely contested match, as both teams have struggled for form lately. Nautico Recife's recent run includes four consecutive games without a win, whereas Ceara's difficulties are highlighted by losing four of their last five matches. Historically, Ceara has a favorable record against Nautico, winning four of their last five encounters, but both teams have been inconsistent offensively, leading to a likely draw.

Nautico Recife is winless in last 4 games
Ceara has lost 4 of their last 5 matches
Historically, Ceara has won 4 of the last 5 matches against Nautico Recife
Both teams struggle scoring, averaging below 1.5 goals per game recently.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

77/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Nautico Recife

Historical edgeCeara
Ceara have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Poor recent formCeara
Ceara have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L
Strong home recordNautico Recife
Nautico Recife have won 5 of their last 11 home matches.
5/11 home wins
Weak away recordCeara
Ceara have won 2 of their last 11 away matches.
2/11 away wins

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 44% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Nautico Recife at 43.76% — final result was Nautico Recife win, Nautico Recife 1-0 Ceara.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (77/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Nautico Recife ✓2.21market 45.2% · model 43.76%

Draw2.97market 33.6% · model 31.87%

Ceara3.46market 28.9% · model 24.37%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Nautico Recife have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Ceara have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Nautico Recife wins

1Draws

4Ceara wins

8-9Goals

Ceara

1–0Aug 25, 2017, 10:15 PM

Nautico Recife

0–2May 27, 2017, 7:30 PM

Ceara

Nautico Recife

1–0Oct 15, 2016, 9:30 PM

Ceara

2–1Jun 25, 2016, 7:30 PM

Nautico Recife

Ceara

1–0Sep 7, 2015, 10:00 PM

Nautico Recife

2–0Jun 2, 2015, 10:30 PM

Ceara

Nautico Recife

2–1Sep 12, 2014, 10:30 PM

Ceara

2–2May 3, 2014, 7:20 PM

Nautico Recife

Odds comparison

Match winner

Nautico Recife2.21▲best 2.27

Draw2.97▼best 3.10

Ceara3.46▼best 3.96

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.24▲best 2.34

Under 2.51.61▼best 1.68

Both teams to score

Yes1.90▲best 2.00

No1.80▼best 1.91

Double chance

Nautico Recife/Draw1.28▲best 1.32

Nautico Recife/Ceara1.34▲best 1.36

Draw/Ceara1.62▼best 1.70

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.50▼best 2.50

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.28▲best 1.28

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.50▼best 3.50

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.50▲best 1.50

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Nautico Recife2.21▲ 0.11

Draw2.97▼ 0.01

Ceara3.46▼ 0.26

16 Aug – 19 Aug

Model vs market

Nautico Recife win+1.8pp

43.76%

Market

42%

Draw+0.7pp

31.87%

Market

31.2%

Ceara win-2.4pp

24.37%

Market

26.8%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.