Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg — UEFA Europa League

UEFA Europa League· 3rd Qualifying Round

Pafos

3–3Full-time

Red Bull Salzburg

DDLLWDGoals 10-13

LWLDWWGoals 16-13

Today

Lineups~1h before

Kickoff

Half-time

Full-time

Match events

15'Lele (Bruno)
36'Nikolas Veratschnig
37'Biel
46'S. Kitano (Edmund Baidoo)
48'Bruno
54'H. Tabakovic (Damir Redzic)
57'H. Tabakovic
61'Gonçalo Rodrigues (Nicolas Ngamaleu)
70'H. Tabakovic
76'H. Tabakovic (Karim Konaté)
76'Ivan Šunjić (Anderson)
83'Y. Vertessen (Tim Drexler)
83'Nikolas Veratschnig (Leandro Morgalla)
83'Vlad Dragomir (M. Mammadov)
84'M. Mammadov (Lele)
87'Damir Redzic (Frans Krätzig)

Lineups unavailable for this match.

PafosRed Bull Salzburg

1.0
Goals/game: 1.6; 1.3
Conceded/game: 1.3

AI match analysis

Pafos win

30.7%

Draw

27.55%

Red Bull Salzburg win

41.75%

52.3%BTTS

48.2%Over 2.5

23.5%Pafos clean sheet

31.7%Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-2

The data suggests Pafos has been resilient at home despite mixed results overall, recently pushing through an unbeaten streak at their ground. In contrast, Red Bull Salzburg has struggled, failing to secure a win in their last five matches, which raises concerns about their current form. Given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities, a slight edge in scoring favoring the away team could lead to a close match.

Pafos unbeaten in last 2 home games
Red Bull Salzburg winless in last 5 matches
Recent form shows Pafos scoring an average of 1.1 goals per game
Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, conceding over 1 goal per game on average

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

56/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and this fixture has limited historical data available so far.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Red Bull Salzburg

Sharper attackRed Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 1.6 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.6/game
Tighter defensePafos
Pafos are conceding just 1.3 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.3/game conceded

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 42% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Red Bull Salzburg at 41.75% — final result was a draw, Pafos 3-3 Red Bull Salzburg.

Predicted score was 1-2.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (56/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

Red Bull Salzburg2.27market 44.1% · model 41.75%

Pafos2.89market 34.6% · model 30.7%

Draw ✓3.43market 29.2% · model 27.55%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Pafos have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Red Bull Salzburg have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Pafos2.89▼best 3.15

Draw3.43▲best 3.70

Red Bull Salzburg2.27▲best 2.40

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.70▼best 1.80

Under 2.52.10▲best 2.20

Both teams to score

Yes1.56▼best 1.64

No2.26▲best 2.40

Double chance

Pafos/Draw1.60▼best 1.65

Pafos/Red Bull Salzburg1.28▼best 1.33

Draw/Red Bull Salzburg1.37best 1.44

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes4.33▲best 4.33

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.28▼best 1.28

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes3.50▲best 3.50

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.20▼best 1.20

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Pafos2.89▲ 0.11

Draw3.43▲ 0.13

Red Bull Salzburg2.27▼ 0.13

10 Aug – 13 Aug

Model vs market

Pafos win-1.4pp

30.7%

Market

32.1%

Draw+0.6pp

27.55%

Market

27%

Red Bull Salzburg win+0.9pp

41.75%

Market

40.9%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

Standings not available yet.