Phoenix Mercury W vs Washington Mystics W
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Total points edge
AI expects 190 total points vs the market's 168 line — leans over by 22 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Phoenix Mercury W | 15 | 18 | 27 | 24 | 84 |
 Washington Mystics W | 24 | 27 | 26 | 17 | 94 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 84-106
Data suggests that the Washington Mystics W hold a stronger overall performance this season with a 60% win rate compared to the Phoenix Mercury W's 35%. The Mercury's recent home performance, yielding a 55% win rate, indicates they are competitive at home; however, the Mystics' away struggles (30% win rate) could also play a crucial role. In recent encounters, the teams are evenly matched, but Washington's scoring capacity may provide them with an edge in this matchup.
- Phoenix Mercury W has a home win rate of 55% this season.
- Washington Mystics W has a stronger overall season win rate of 60%.
- In their last 10 games, Washington Mystics W averaged 79.2 points scored, while Phoenix Mercury W averaged 86.5 points.
- Historically, the last five matchups show both teams winning two games each, but with a recent 75-69 win for Phoenix Mercury W.],
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Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Washington Mystics W
- Sharper attackPhoenix Mercury W
Phoenix Mercury W are averaging 84.9 points scored per game over their recent matches.
84.9/game - Historical edgePhoenix Mercury W
Phoenix Mercury W have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Tighter defenseWashington Mystics W
Washington Mystics W are conceding just 82.9 points per game over their recent matches.
82.9/game conceded - Higher league positionWashington Mystics W
Washington Mystics W sit 8 places above Phoenix Mercury W in the table.
#4 vs #12
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
- Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 56% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Washington Mystics W at 56% — final result was Washington Mystics W win, Phoenix Mercury W 84-94 Washington Mystics W.
Predicted score was 84-106.
The model itself only flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (74/100) — a closer call that happened to land right.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Phoenix Mercury W have averaged 84.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Washington Mystics W have averaged 84.2 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Phoenix Mercury W are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Washington Mystics W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Phoenix Mercury W | Washington Mystics W |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 2.10▼ | 1.74▲ |
| +0.5 | 2.10▼ | 1.74▲ |
| +1 | 1.99▼ | 1.79▲ |
| +1.5 | 1.93▼ | 1.86▲ |
| +2 | 1.86▼ | 1.92▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.78▼ | 1.97▲ |
| +3 | 1.74▼ | 2.03▲ |
| +3.5 | 1.70▼ | 2.09▲ |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 166 | 1.73▼ | 2.03▲ |
| 166.5 | 1.77▼ | 2.00▲ |
| 167 | 1.81▼ | 1.94▲ |
| 167.5 | 1.85▼ | 1.92▲ |
| 168 | 1.89▼ | 1.86▲ |
| 168.5 | 1.94▼ | 1.80▲ |
| 169 | 1.99▼ | 1.76▲ |
| 169.5 | 2.03▼ | 1.73▲ |
Double chance
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Phoenix Mercury WWashington Mystics WWashington Mystics WPhoenix Mercury WWashington Mystics WPhoenix Mercury WPhoenix Mercury WWashington Mystics WPhoenix Mercury WWashington Mystics WLeague standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 2 |  Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 3 |  New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 4 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 5 |  Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 6 |  Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 7 |  Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 |  Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 5 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 6 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 7 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 8 |  Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 9 |  Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 10 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 12 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 15 |  Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 5 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 8 | Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
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Who is likely to win Phoenix Mercury W vs Washington Mystics W?+
Our AI model favors Washington Mystics W to win, with a 56% probability (Phoenix Mercury W 44%).
What time does Phoenix Mercury W vs Washington Mystics W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 26, 2026, 2:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Phoenix Mercury W vs Washington Mystics W?+
Phoenix Mercury W: 15-18-27-24. Washington Mystics W: 24-27-26-17. Final: 84-94.