Phoenix Mercury W vs Washington Mystics W
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+1.3% edgePhoenix Mercury W win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Total points edge
AI expects 170 total points vs the market's 166 line — leans over by 4 points.
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Phoenix Mercury W | 18 | 19 | 20 | 16 | 73 |
 Washington Mystics W | 20 | 20 | 13 | 27 | 80 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 82-88
Data suggests that while the Phoenix Mercury W have shown some capability with a 50% home win rate, their recent form has been inconsistent, losing many close games. In contrast, the Washington Mystics W have not only performed better overall but also have a strong recent head-to-head record against Phoenix, favoring them in this matchup.
- Washington Mystics W have won 4 of their last 5 matchups against Phoenix Mercury W.
- Phoenix Mercury W's winning percentage at home is 50%, showing some strength but inconsistent form.
- Washington Mystics W rank 4th in the Eastern Conference with a 60% win rate this season.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is moderate, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Washington Mystics W
- Sharper attackPhoenix Mercury W
Phoenix Mercury W are averaging 84.9 points scored per game over their recent matches.
84.9/game - Tighter defenseWashington Mystics W
Washington Mystics W are conceding just 84.1 points per game over their recent matches.
84.1/game conceded - Historical edgePhoenix Mercury W
Phoenix Mercury W have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Higher league positionWashington Mystics W
Washington Mystics W sit 8 places above Phoenix Mercury W in the table.
#4 vs #12
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Washington Mystics W at 60% — final result was Washington Mystics W win, Phoenix Mercury W 73-80 Washington Mystics W.
Predicted score was 82-88.
This was a high confidence pick (81/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Phoenix Mercury W have averaged 84.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Washington Mystics W have averaged 81.9 points scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Phoenix Mercury W are unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 meetings with Washington Mystics W.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Phoenix Mercury W | Washington Mystics W |
|---|---|---|
| +2.5 | 2.11▲ | 1.68▼ |
| +3 | 2.04▲ | 1.74▼ |
| +3.5 | 1.99▲ | 1.78▼ |
| +4 | 1.94▲ | 1.87▼ |
| +4.5 | 1.86▲ | 1.92▼ |
| +5 | 1.78▲ | 2.00▼ |
| +5.5 | 1.73▲ | 2.05▼ |
| +6 | 1.66▲ | 2.15 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 164.5 | 1.75▲ | 2.02▼ |
| 165 | 1.76 | 2.02 |
| 165.5 | 1.84▲ | 1.93▼ |
| 166 | 1.86▲ | 1.92▼ |
| 166.5 | 1.92▲ | 1.84▼ |
| 167 | 1.94▲ | 1.82▼ |
| 167.5 | 2.00▲ | 1.77▼ |
| 168 | 1.98▲ | 1.76▼ |
Double chance
Average price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Players to watch
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Phoenix Mercury WWashington Mystics WWashington Mystics WPhoenix Mercury WWashington Mystics WPhoenix Mercury WPhoenix Mercury WWashington Mystics WPhoenix Mercury WWashington Mystics WLeague standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 2 |  Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 3 |  New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 4 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 5 |  Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 6 |  Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 7 |  Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 1 |  Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 |  Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 |  Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream W | 37 | 24 | 13 | +207 | 65 | — |
| 5 | Indiana Fever W | 39 | 25 | 14 | +222 | 64 | — |
| 6 | New York Liberty W | 38 | 23 | 15 | +119 | 61 | — |
| 7 | Washington Mystics W | 37 | 22 | 15 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 8 |  Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 9 |  Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 10 | Chicago Sky W | 38 | 15 | 23 | -95 | 40 | — |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 12 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo W | 37 | 11 | 26 | -237 | 30 | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun W | 36 | 9 | 27 | -288 | 25 | — |
| 15 |  Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx W | 38 | 31 | 7 | +337 | 82 | — |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries W | 36 | 25 | 11 | +212 | 69 | — |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces W | 39 | 26 | 13 | +143 | 67 | — |
| 4 | Dallas Wings W | 38 | 22 | 16 | +102 | 58 | — |
| 5 | Portland Fire W | 37 | 15 | 22 | -162 | 41 | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Sparks W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -193 | 35 | — |
| 7 | Phoenix Mercury W | 37 | 13 | 24 | -138 | 35 | — |
| 8 | Seattle Storm W | 38 | 7 | 31 | -210 | 18 | — |
Season comparison
Based on each team's last 20 and 20 finished games.
More NBA W predictions
Atlanta Dream WPortland Fire WIndiana Fever WConnecticut Sun WLos Angeles Sparks WWashington Mystics WLas Vegas Aces WToronto Tempo WFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Phoenix Mercury W vs Washington Mystics W?+
Our AI model favors Washington Mystics W to win, with a 60% probability (Phoenix Mercury W 40%).
What time does Phoenix Mercury W vs Washington Mystics W start?+
Tip-off is at Aug 28, 2026, 2:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the score by quarter in Phoenix Mercury W vs Washington Mystics W?+
Phoenix Mercury W: 18-19-20-16. Washington Mystics W: 20-20-13-27. Final: 73-80.