São Bernardo vs Botafogo SP — Serie B

Serie B· Regular Season - 22

São Bernardo

0–1Full-time

Botafogo SP

WLDDGoals 3-513th in league

WDLDWDGoals 10-814th in league

Home2W 6D 5L(14-15)

Away3W 4D 5L(8-10)

Match events

46'Hygor (Arthur Caíke)
48'Pará
58'Wallace dos Santos (Hebert Willian Badaró Oliveira)
62'Helder Maciel
70'Pedrinho (Pedro Vitor)
70'Hyoran (Léo Jabá)
72'Patrick Brey (Zé Hugo)
77'Victor Souza
79'Foguinho (Lucas Lima)
79'Romisson (Fabrício Daniel)
83'Rafael Gava (Marco Antonio Batistussi)
84'Matheus Sales (Guilherme Mariano)
86'Pará (Daniel Amorim)
90+1'Zé Hugo (L. Maciel)

Lineups

São Bernardo

Botafogo SP

4-2-3-1

Catala RicardoCoach

Tencati Claudio

AI match analysis

São Bernardo win

38%

Draw

33%

Botafogo SP win

29%

31.8%BTTS

24.3%Over 2.5

36.8%São Bernardo clean sheet

49.7%Botafogo SP clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

Data suggests a competitive match given the closely matched standings and recent forms of both teams. São Bernardo's tendency to draw at home and Botafogo SP's struggles on the road could lead to a tightly contested game, possibly ending in a draw.

São Bernardo has drawn 5 of their 11 home matches this season
Botafogo SP has only won 2 of their last 11 away games
Historically, both teams have similar league standings and recent form

AI ConfidenceModerate confidence

57/100

Confidence is moderate because the outcomes are closely matched, which limits confidence, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and some historical data (form, H2H or standings) is still incomplete.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors São Bernardo

Higher league positionSão Bernardo
São Bernardo sit 1 place above Botafogo SP in the table.
#13 vs #14

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
Close matchup
The model gives the favorite only a 38% probability, so this is a closely-matched fixture and confidence remains moderate.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked São Bernardo at 38% — final result was Botafogo SP win, São Bernardo 0-1 Botafogo SP.

Predicted score was 1-1.

The model itself flagged this as a moderate confidence pick (57/100), so this miss was a genuinely close call.

Closing odds vs. our model

São Bernardo2.43market 41.1% · model 38%

Draw2.91market 34.4% · model 33%

Botafogo SP ✓3.09market 32.4% · model 29%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

São Bernardo have averaged 0.6 goals scored per game over their last 5 matches.
Botafogo SP have averaged 1 goal scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

São Bernardo2.43▲best 2.60

Draw2.91▼best 3.05

Botafogo SP3.09▼best 3.33

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.42▼best 2.57

Under 2.51.51▲best 1.54

Both teams to score

Yes2.01▼best 2.10

No1.71▼best 1.75

Double chance

São Bernardo/Draw1.33▲best 1.40

São Bernardo/Botafogo SP1.36▲best 1.40

Draw/Botafogo SP1.51▼best 1.55

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes2.75▼best 2.75

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.44▼best 1.44

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.62▲best 2.62

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.40▲best 1.40

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

São Bernardo2.43▲ 0.13

Draw2.91▼ 0.04

Botafogo SP3.09▼ 0.09

11 Aug – 14 Aug

Model vs market

São Bernardo win-0.1pp

AI

38%

Market

38.1%

Draw+1.1pp

AI

33%

Market

31.9%

Botafogo SP win-1pp

AI

29%

Market

30%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
13	São Bernardo	24	8	8	8	+6	32	DDLWL
14	Botafogo SP	23	8	7	8	+5	31	DWWLW

Pre-match comparison

0.6Goals scored per game1

1Goals conceded per game0.8

Rolling averages based on each team's last 5 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

São Bernardo

0-15'

0%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

50%

46-60'

50%

61-75'

0%

76-90+'

0%

Botafogo SP

0-15'

0%

16-30'

0%

31-45'

0%

46-60'

0%

61-75'

0%

76-90+'

100%

Match statistics

64%Possession36%

0.78Expected goals (xG)1.64

3Shots on target3

15Total shots17

7Shots off target7

5Blocked shots7

9Shots inside the box10

6Shots outside the box7

12Corners11

1Offsides0

8Fouls12

2Yellow cards1

—Red cards—

2Goalkeeper saves3

465Total passes253

400Accurate passes196

86%Pass accuracy77%

Player ratings

1Victor SouzaBotafogo SP🟨8.9
2Patrick BreyBotafogo SP⚽ 17.9
3EduardoSão Bernardo7.7
4Helder MacielSão Bernardo🟨7.6
5Zé HugoBotafogo SP🅰️ 17.3
6Wesley PinheiroBotafogo SP7.3

Box score

São Bernardo

35

35JemersonD · 90'

7.2

More stats

Shots1/2 on target

Passes60%

Tackles1

Duels71%

42HyoranM · 70'

6.7

More stats

Shots1/3 on target

Passes11%

Tackles1

Duels33%

29

29PedrinhoM · 70'

6.9

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes15%

Tackles2

Duels67%

6

6ParáD · 86'

🟨7.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes36%

Tackles2

Duels50%

17

17RomissonM · 79'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes22%

Tackles—

Duels33%

3

3Helder MacielD · 90'

🟨7.6

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes65%

Tackles2

Duels75%

8Foguinho (C)M · 79'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes31%

Tackles—

Duels43%

9

9Felipe GarciaF · 90'

6.3

More stats

Shots0/2 on target

Passes13%

Tackles—

Duels29%

12

12Júnior OliveiraG · 90'

6.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes14%

Tackles—

Duels—

2

2Rodrigo FerreiraD · 90'

6.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes32%

Tackles1

Duels33%

26EduardoM · 90'

7.7

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes69%

Tackles1

Duels33%

Bench (12)

10Fabrício DanielF · 11'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes3%

Tackles—

Duels33%

14

14Lucas LimaM · 11'

6.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes10%

Tackles1

Duels75%

89

89Daniel AmorimF · 10'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes2%

Tackles—

Duels—

98Léo JabáF · 20'

6.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes5%

Tackles—

Duels0%

11

11Pedro VitorF · 20'

6.6

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes13%

Tackles—

Duels100%

21

21Hugo SanchesD

—

97

97AugustoD

—

37

37D. DaviF

—

27EchaporãF

—

22Leo LangG

—

25

25W. Gonzaga—

—

36

36GaldinoM

—

Botafogo SP

13Wallace dos SantosD · 58'

6.9

More stats

Shots1/3 on target

Passes14%

Tackles1

Duels50%

16Matheus SalesM · 83'

6.7

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes21%

Tackles—

Duels50%

10Rafael GavaM · 83'

6.3

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes24%

Tackles—

Duels50%

6Patrick Brey (C)D · 90'

⚽ 17.9

More stats

Shots1/2 on target

Passes20%

Tackles1

Duels56%

9HygorF · 45'

6.3

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes5%

Tackles—

Duels25%

30Zé HugoM · 89'

🅰️ 17.3

More stats

Shots0/2 on target

Passes7%

Tackles3

Duels69%

1Victor SouzaG · 90'

🟨8.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes17%

Tackles—

Duels—

8Everton MorelliM · 90'

6.9

More stats

Shots0/1 on target

Passes13%

Tackles3

Duels62%

22

22Gabriel Inocêncio—

—

4VilarD · 90'

7.2

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes31%

Tackles1

Duels55%

23Wesley PinheiroM · 90'

7.3

More stats

Shots1/1 on target

Passes19%

Tackles4

Duels67%

Bench (11)

18Arthur CaíkeF · 45'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes1%

Tackles—

Duels29%

11Jefferson NemF

—

5

5L. MacielM · 1'

—

34Hebert Willian Badaró OliveiraD · 32'

6.5

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes1%

Tackles—

Duels0%

15Guilherme MarianoD · 13'

6.6

28Marco Antonio BatistussiM · 13'

6.9

More stats

Shots— on target

Passes1%

Tackles—

Duels—

7KelvinF

—

12JordanG

—

26Felipe VieiraD

—

20Yuri Felipe Santos da ConceicaoM

—

31PedrinhoD

—

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Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win São Bernardo vs Botafogo SP?+

Our AI model favors São Bernardo to win, with a 38% probability (Draw 33%, Botafogo SP 29%).

What time does São Bernardo vs Botafogo SP kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 14, 2026, 10:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).