Shelbourne vs Ajax — UEFA Europa Conference League

UEFA Europa Conference League· 3rd Qualifying Round

Shelbourne

2–2Full-time

Ajax

WDWWDLGoals 15-10

LLLWDWGoals 16-23

Match events

20'Julian Brandt (J. Mokio)
23'Aaron Bouwman
24'Rodrigo Freitas (Evan Caffrey)
24'Evan Caffrey
26'Marcos Leonardo
28'Rodrigo Freitas
39'A. Gaaei
46'Daley Blind (Youri Baas)
56'Julian Brandt (A. Ouazane)
57'Marcos Leonardo (T. Arokodare)
60'S. Bone (S. Gannon)
65'Goal Disallowed - offside — Milan Mbeng
65'Milan Mbeng
69'O. Edvardsen (Dies Janse)
69'O. Wijndal (Caio Henrique)
70'J. Lunney
70'Maher Carrizo (Dies Janse)
72'Rodrigo Freitas (Daniel Ring)
72'J. Lunney (James Roche)
75'James Roche
81'Milan Mbeng (S. Moore)
81'James Norris (Will Jarvis)
85'S. Moore (Evan Caffrey)
90+2'S. Gannon

Lineups

Shelbourne

Ajax

3-5-24-3-3

Lorcan FitzgeraldCoach

Michel

AI match analysis

Shelbourne win

6.79%

Draw

11.61%

Ajax win

81.6%

61.9%BTTS

62%Over 2.5

27.3%Shelbourne clean sheet

15%Ajax clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-3

Data suggests Ajax enters this match with a strong performance in away games, winning 4 of their last 5. Shelbourne, although showing resilience with some recent wins, has faced inconsistency reflected in their recent form, and their scoring averages are lower compared to Ajax's higher xG. Thus, the numbers favor an away victory based on current trends.

Ajax won 4 of their last 5 matches away from home
Shelbourne's last 5 matches resulted in 2 wins and 3 losses
Ajax has a higher scoring average (1.2) compared to Shelbourne's (1.5) with a better xG (1.54)

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

80/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and this fixture has limited historical data available so far.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Ajax

Tighter defenseShelbourne
Shelbourne are conceding just 1 goals per game over their recent matches.
1/game conceded
Good recent formShelbourne
Shelbourne have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Good recent formAjax
Ajax have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
3W 1D 1L
Sharper attackShelbourne
Shelbourne are averaging 1.5 goals scored per game over their recent matches.
1.5/game

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
No head-to-head history
These two teams have no recorded meetings, so the prediction relies on form and standings alone.

How did our prediction do?

✗ Missed pickExact score missed

We picked Ajax at 81.6% — final result was a draw, Shelbourne 2-2 Ajax.

Predicted score was 1-3.

This was a high confidence pick (80/100) that didn't come through — a reminder that no forecast is guaranteed.

Closing odds vs. our model

Ajax1.18market 84.5% · model 81.6%

Draw ✓6.53market 15.3% · model 11.61%

Shelbourne11.63market 8.6% · model 6.79%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Shelbourne have averaged 1.5 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Ajax have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings on record.

Odds comparison

Match winner

Shelbourne11.63▼best 14.20

Draw6.53▼best 7.50

Ajax1.18▲best 1.22

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.36▲best 1.40

Under 2.52.89▼best 3.00

Both teams to score

Yes1.88▼best 2.00

No1.82▲best 2.00

Double chance

Shelbourne/Draw4.41▼best 4.78

Shelbourne/Ajax1.09▲best 1.11

Draw/Ajax1.03▲best 1.06

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes1.83▲best 1.83

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.83▼best 1.83

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes9.00best 9.00

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.04best 1.04

Average and best price across 14 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Shelbourne11.63▼ 0.37

Draw6.53▼ 0.47

Ajax1.18▲ 0.01

12 Aug – 13 Aug

Model vs market

Shelbourne win-1.1pp

AI

6.79%

Market

7.9%

Draw-2.5pp

AI

11.61%

Market

14.1%

Ajax win+3.6pp

AI

81.6%

Market

78%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.