Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls
Value found
+0.5% edgeAtlanta United FC win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Match events
- 6'Emil Forsberg (Adri Mehmeti)
- 48'T. Jacob
- 68'M. Edwards (S. Gregersen)
- 69'Tristan Muyumba
- 71'Mijahir Jimenez (J. Ruvalcaba)
- 79'Emil Forsberg (Mohammed Sofo)
- 79'Matthew Dos Santos (Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty)
- 79'Cade Cowell (Cameron Harper)
- 80'E. Baez (Ronald Hernández)
- 80'C. Sanchez (S. Alzate)
- 82'Fafà Picault (Miguel Almirón)
- 82'Fafà Picault
- 86'Adri Mehmeti (Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting)
- 86'Fafà Picault (Sergio Santos)
- 86'Miguel Almirón (L. Brennan)
- 90+5'Mohammed Sofo
- 1.1
- Goals/game
- 0.8
- 1.6
- Conceded/game
- 1.2
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 1-1
The recent form of both teams suggests a challenging match ahead, particularly for Atlanta United FC, who have only managed 2 wins at home this season and are currently on a four-match losing streak. In contrast, New York Red Bulls have been more resilient but their inconsistent form on the road complicates their chances, leading to a more balanced outcome. Given their prior encounters, a draw seems plausible.
- Atlanta United FC has lost 4 of their last 5 matches
- New York Red Bulls have only 1 win in their last 5 matches
- Historically, Atlanta United FC struggles against New York Red Bulls at home, losing 2 of their last 5 encounters
Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Atlanta United FC
- Higher league positionNew York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls sit 4 places above Atlanta United FC in the table.
#8 vs #12 - Tighter defenseNew York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.
1.2/game conceded - Historical edgeNew York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins - Poor recent formNew York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
0W 1D 4L
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Atlanta United FC at 50% — final result was Atlanta United FC win, Atlanta United FC 2-1 New York Red Bulls.
Predicted score was 1-1.
This was a high confidence pick (85/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Atlanta United FC have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- New York Red Bulls have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
Odds comparison
Match winner
Total goals (2.5 line)
Both teams to score
Double chance
Clean sheet
Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Match winner — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | -11 | 21 | WWLL | |
| 8 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -12 | 26 | LLWL |
Pre-match comparison
Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.
When do they score?
Atlanta United FC
More Major League Soccer predictions
Frequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls?+
Our AI model favors Atlanta United FC to win, with a 50% probability (Draw 25%, New York Red Bulls 25%).
What time does Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls kick off?+
Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 11:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).

