Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls

Major League Soccer· Regular Season - 19
LDWWGoals 11-1612th in league
LLLDGoals 8-128th in league
Home4W 1D 5L(15-16)
Away3W 2D 5L(14-23)

Value found

+0.5% edge

Atlanta United FC win

2AI fair odds
2.01Bookmaker odds
+0.5%Value

Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.

Today
Lineups~1h before
Kickoff
Half-time
Full-time

Match events

  1. 6'Emil Forsberg (Adri Mehmeti)
  2. 48'T. Jacob
  3. 68'M. Edwards (S. Gregersen)
  4. 69'Tristan Muyumba
  5. 71'Mijahir Jimenez (J. Ruvalcaba)
  6. 79'Emil Forsberg (Mohammed Sofo)
  7. 79'Matthew Dos Santos (Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty)
  8. 79'Cade Cowell (Cameron Harper)
  9. 80'E. Baez (Ronald Hernández)
  10. 80'C. Sanchez (S. Alzate)
  11. 82'Fafà Picault (Miguel Almirón)
  12. 82'Fafà Picault
  13. 86'Adri Mehmeti (Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting)
  14. 86'Fafà Picault (Sergio Santos)
  15. 86'Miguel Almirón (L. Brennan)
  16. 90+5'Mohammed Sofo
Lineups unavailable for this match.
Atlanta United FCNew York Red Bulls
1.1
Goals/game
0.8
1.6
Conceded/game
1.2

AI match analysis

Atlanta United FC win
50%
Draw
25%
New York Red Bulls win
25%
47.8%BTTS
41.7%Over 2.5
30.1%Atlanta United FC clean sheet
31.7%New York Red Bulls clean sheet

Predicted score: 1-1

The recent form of both teams suggests a challenging match ahead, particularly for Atlanta United FC, who have only managed 2 wins at home this season and are currently on a four-match losing streak. In contrast, New York Red Bulls have been more resilient but their inconsistent form on the road complicates their chances, leading to a more balanced outcome. Given their prior encounters, a draw seems plausible.

  • Atlanta United FC has lost 4 of their last 5 matches
  • New York Red Bulls have only 1 win in their last 5 matches
  • Historically, Atlanta United FC struggles against New York Red Bulls at home, losing 2 of their last 5 encounters
AI ConfidenceHigh confidence
85/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Atlanta United FC

  • Higher league positionNew York Red Bulls

    New York Red Bulls sit 4 places above Atlanta United FC in the table.

    #8 vs #12
  • Tighter defenseNew York Red Bulls

    New York Red Bulls are conceding just 1.2 goals per game over their recent matches.

    1.2/game conceded
  • Historical edgeNew York Red Bulls

    New York Red Bulls have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

    4/8 H2H wins
  • Poor recent formNew York Red Bulls

    New York Red Bulls have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.

    0W 1D 4L

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

  • AI and market are closely aligned

    The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Atlanta United FC at 50% — final result was Atlanta United FC win, Atlanta United FC 2-1 New York Red Bulls.

Predicted score was 1-1.

This was a high confidence pick (85/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Atlanta United FC2.01market 49.8% · model 50%
New York Red Bulls3.21market 31.2% · model 25%
Draw3.94market 25.4% · model 25%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

  • Atlanta United FC have averaged 1.1 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • New York Red Bulls have averaged 0.8 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2Atlanta United FC wins
2Draws
4New York Red Bulls wins
7-13Goals

Odds comparison

Match winner

Atlanta United FC2.01best 2.10
Draw3.94best 4.05
New York Red Bulls3.21best 3.40

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.51.41best 1.45
Under 2.52.80best 2.90

Both teams to score

Yes1.37best 1.40
No2.88best 3.10

Double chance

Atlanta United FC/Draw1.33best 1.37
Atlanta United FC/New York Red Bulls1.22best 1.25
Draw/New York Red Bulls1.77best 1.80

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes3.90best 4.00
Clean Sheet - Home — No1.22best 1.22
Clean Sheet - Away — Yes6.00best 6.50
Clean Sheet - Away — No1.11best 1.11

Average and best price across 12 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Atlanta United FC2.01 0.15
Draw3.94 0.06
New York Red Bulls3.21 0.26
12 Aug15 Aug

Model vs market

Atlanta United FC win+3.2pp
AI
50%
Market
46.8%
Draw+1.1pp
AI
25%
Market
23.9%
New York Red Bulls win-4.3pp
AI
25%
Market
29.3%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.

League standings

#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
12
Atlanta United FC
216312-1121WWLL
8
New York Red Bulls
21759-1226LLWL

Pre-match comparison

1.1Goals scored per game0.8
1.6Goals conceded per game1.2

Rolling averages based on each team's last 10 and 10 finished matches; clean sheets/failed-to-score are full-season totals.

When do they score?

Atlanta United FC

0-15'
0%
16-30'
0%
31-45'
50%
46-60'
0%
61-75'
0%
76-90+'
50%

More Major League Soccer predictions

Frequently asked questions

Who is likely to win Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls?+

Our AI model favors Atlanta United FC to win, with a 50% probability (Draw 25%, New York Red Bulls 25%).

What time does Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls kick off?+

Kickoff is at Aug 15, 2026, 11:30 PM (your local time, based on your device).