Atletico-MG vs Gremio — Serie A

Serie A· Regular Season - 23

Atletico-MG

3–0Full-time

Gremio

LDWDDDGoals 12-109th in league

LLLWWLGoals 16-1415th in league

Home5W 4D 1L(17-13)

Away0W 4D 8L(6-18)

Match events

19'Vitor Hugo (Igor Gomes)
31'Igor Gomes (Bernard)
39'Cristian Pavón
42'A. Preciado
45+2'M. Cisse
46'Gustavo Martins (Walter Kannemann)
46'Cristian Pavón (Tetê)
46'Juan Nardoni (Filip Krovinović)
58'Renan Lodi
61'Walter Kannemann
62'A. Franco (Maycon)
62'M. Cisse (Kevin Castaño)
62'T. Cuello (Renan Lodi)
63'Dodi (Gabriel Mec)
66'T. Cuello
66'Dodi (Gabriel Mec)
69'Pedro Gabriel
76'Pedro Gabriel (Caio Paulista)
81'T. Cuello (Dudu)
81'Victor Hugo (A. Minda)

Lineups

Atletico-MG

Gremio

4-2-3-14-1-4-1

Eduardo DominguezCoach

Luis Castro

AI match analysis

Atletico-MG win

52%

Draw

26%

Gremio win

22%

52.9%BTTS

48.2%Over 2.5

27.3%Atletico-MG clean sheet

27.3%Gremio clean sheet

Predicted score: 2-1

Data suggests a competitive match, with Atletico-MG enjoying the advantage of home turf and a respectable recent form of 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches. Gremio, however, has struggled on the road this season, failing to secure a single away victory, which may impact their performance. The most likely outcome leans towards a narrow home victory, bolstered by Atletico-MG's scoring ability averaging 1.6 goals per game.

Atletico-MG has a strong home record with 4 wins in 9 matches this season.
Gremio has yet to win an away game, with 4 draws and 6 losses.
Recent head-to-head matches slightly favor Gremio, winning 3 out of the last 5 encounters.

AI ConfidenceHigh confidence

88/100

Confidence is high because the probability gap between outcomes is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.

AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.

Why AI favors Atletico-MG

Historical edgeGremio
Gremio have won 4 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
4/8 H2H wins
Strong home recordAtletico-MG
Atletico-MG have won 5 of their last 10 home matches.
5/10 home wins
Weak away recordGremio
Gremio have won 0 of their last 12 away matches.
0/12 away wins
Higher league positionAtletico-MG
Atletico-MG sit 6 places above Gremio in the table.
#9 vs #15

Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.

What could change the prediction

AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.

How did our prediction do?

✓ Correct pickExact score missed

We picked Atletico-MG at 52% — final result was Atletico-MG win, Atletico-MG 3-0 Gremio.

Predicted score was 2-1.

This was a high confidence pick (88/100) — and it paid off.

Closing odds vs. our model

Atletico-MG ✓1.83market 54.6% · model 52%

Draw3.47market 28.8% · model 26%

Gremio4.38market 22.8% · model 22%

Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.

Match trends

Atletico-MG have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Gremio have averaged 1.6 goals scored per game over their last 10 matches.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides.
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 head-to-head matches.

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Atletico-MG wins

1Draws

4Gremio wins

14-13Goals

Atletico-MG

1–3Aug 17, 2025, 7:00 PM

Gremio

2–1Mar 29, 2025, 9:30 PM

Atletico-MG

3–0Nov 26, 2023, 7:00 PM

Gremio

1–0Jul 23, 2023, 12:00 AM

Atletico-MG

Gremio

4–3Dec 10, 2021, 12:30 AM

Atletico-MG

2–1Nov 4, 2021, 12:00 AM

Gremio

1–1Jan 20, 2021, 10:15 PM

Atletico-MG

3–1Sep 27, 2020, 12:00 AM

Gremio

Odds comparison

Match winner

Atletico-MG1.83▲best 1.87

Draw3.47▼best 3.70

Gremio4.38▼best 4.60

Total goals (2.5 line)

Over 2.52.01▲best 2.07

Under 2.51.78▼best 1.84

Both teams to score

Yes1.82▼best 1.87

No1.89▲best 1.95

Double chance

Atletico-MG/Draw1.20best 1.23

Atletico-MG/Gremio1.28▲best 1.31

Draw/Gremio1.95▼best 2.00

Clean sheet

Clean Sheet - Home — Yes2.38▲best 2.38

Clean Sheet - Home — No1.53▼best 1.53

Clean Sheet - Away — Yes4.42best 4.50

Clean Sheet - Away — No1.18best 1.18

Average and best price across 13 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.

Match winner — odds movement

Atletico-MG1.83▲ 0.06

Draw3.47▲ 0.05

Gremio4.38▼ 0.12

13 Aug – 16 Aug

Model vs market

Atletico-MG win+0.6pp

AI

52%

Market

51.4%

Draw-1.1pp

AI

26%

Market

27.1%

Gremio win+0.5pp

AI

22%

Market

21.5%

"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.