Chiba Lotte Marines vs Fukuoka S. Hawks
Value found
+3.9% edgeChiba Lotte Marines win
Statistical comparison of our AI's win probability against the average bookmaker price — not betting advice.
Box score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chiba Lotte Marines | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 Fukuoka S. Hawks | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 0 |
AI match analysis
Predicted score: 3-6
The data suggests that Fukuoka S. Hawks have a significant edge heading into this match, with a strong away record and recent scoring averages favoring them. Chiba Lotte Marines, despite their home advantage, have struggled with lower runs scored and higher runs allowed in their last 10 games. Historically, Fukuoka has dominated recent matchups, further tilting the analysis in their favor.
- Chiba Lotte Marines have a 60% home win rate this season.
- Fukuoka S. Hawks lead the Pacific Division with a 0.616 win pct and 74% away win rate.
- The last 10 games show Chiba averaging 2.9 runs scored and 4.7 runs allowed per game, whereas Fukuoka averages 5.1 runs scored and 3.8 runs allowed.
Confidence is high because the win-probability gap between the two teams is decisive, and the bookmaker market agrees closely with this read, and recent form, standings and head-to-head data are all available.
AI-generated statistical analysis, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+ | Please gamble responsibly.
Why AI favors Fukuoka S. Hawks
- Sharper attackFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks are averaging 5.2 runs scored per game over their recent matches.
5.2/game - Tighter defenseFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks are conceding just 2.7 runs per game over their recent matches.
2.7/game conceded - Historical edgeFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
3/5 H2H wins - Higher league positionFukuoka S. Hawks
Fukuoka S. Hawks sit 4 places above Chiba Lotte Marines in the table.
#1 vs #5
Computed independently from historical data — not a model-reported reason.
What could change the prediction
- AI and market are closely aligned
The bookmaker market and our model currently see this match almost identically, which limits how differentiated this pick is.
How did our prediction do?
We picked Fukuoka S. Hawks at 68% — final result was Fukuoka S. Hawks win, Chiba Lotte Marines 0-9 Fukuoka S. Hawks.
Predicted score was 3-6.
This was a high confidence pick (93/100) — and it paid off.
Closing odds vs. our model
Last tracked odds before kickoff, compared against our AI's pre-match probability for the same outcome.
Match trends
- Chiba Lotte Marines have averaged 3.4 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Fukuoka S. Hawks have averaged 5.2 runs scored per game over their last 10 matches.
- Chiba Lotte Marines are unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 meetings with Fukuoka S. Hawks.
Odds comparison
Moneyline
Point spread
| Line | Chiba Lotte Marines | Fukuoka S. Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| +0.5 | 3.13▲ | 1.33▼ |
| +1 | 2.62 | 1.38 |
| +1.5 | 2.22▲ | 1.60▼ |
| +2 | 2.01▲ | 1.73▲ |
| +2.5 | 1.79▼ | 1.95▲ |
| +3 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
| +3.5 | 1.50 | 2.42▲ |
| +4 | 1.38 | 2.62 |
Total points
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.38 | 2.80 |
| 6.5 | 1.52▼ | 2.41▲ |
| 7 | 1.63▼ | 2.14▲ |
| 7.5 | 1.84▼ | 1.90▲ |
| 8 | 1.96▲ | 1.75 |
| 8.5 | 2.14▼ | 1.64▲ |
| 9 | 2.45▼ | 1.48 |
| 9.5 | 2.65 | 1.43 |
Average price across 11 bookmakers we track. Odds change continuously — shown for reference only, not a recommendation.
Moneyline — odds movement
Model vs market
"Market" is the average bookmaker price converted to an implied probability with the bookmaker's built-in margin removed, for a fair comparison against the AI's own probability estimate.
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
League standings
| # | Team | P | W | L | Diff | Win% | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hanshin Tigers | 115 | 65 | 50 | +66 | 56 | — |
| 2 |  Yomiuri Giants | 117 | 63 | 54 | +30 | 54 | — |
| 3 |  Yokohama BayStars | 116 | 52 | 64 | +5 | 45 | — |
| 4 |  Yakult Swallows | 115 | 51 | 64 | -79 | 44 | — |
| 5 |  Chunichi Dragons | 119 | 51 | 68 | -6 | 43 | — |
| 6 |  Hiroshima Carp | 112 | 46 | 66 | -74 | 41 | — |
| 1 | Fukuoka S. Hawks | 116 | 72 | 44 | +181 | 62 | — |
| 2 |  Seibu Lions | 119 | 67 | 52 | +37 | 56 | — |
| 3 |  Nippon Ham Fighters | 119 | 65 | 54 | +64 | 55 | — |
| 4 |  Orix Buffaloes | 118 | 56 | 62 | -71 | 48 | — |
| 5 | Chiba Lotte Marines | 113 | 52 | 61 | -71 | 46 | — |
| 6 |  Rakuten Gold. Eagles | 115 | 45 | 70 | -82 | 39 | — |
More NPB predictions
Nippon Ham FightersChiba Lotte MarinesOrix BuffaloesFukuoka S. HawksSeibu LionsRakuten Gold. EaglesHiroshima CarpYakult SwallowsFrequently asked questions
Who is likely to win Chiba Lotte Marines vs Fukuoka S. Hawks?+
Our AI model favors Fukuoka S. Hawks to win, with a 68% probability (Chiba Lotte Marines 32%).
What time does Chiba Lotte Marines vs Fukuoka S. Hawks start?+
First pitch is at Aug 25, 2026, 9:00 AM (your local time, based on your device).
What was the inning-by-inning score in Chiba Lotte Marines vs Fukuoka S. Hawks?+
Chiba Lotte Marines: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0. Fukuoka S. Hawks: 5, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2. Final: 0-9.